Emilio Pagán's injury could force Reds to face costly reality fans are starting to fear

Even when the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen was rolling to start the year, Emilio Pagán's performance was a cause for concern. From Opening Day through April 19, the pen as a whole led the league with a 2.31 ERA, but Pagán's 4.35 mark and 14% walk rate were causes for concern.

Over the last few weeks, the 35-year-old's outlook only got worse, as several poor performances ballooned his ERA to 6.35 on the year, despite reducing his walks to a more manageable 9.7%.

Any hope that could work out of whatever funk he was in disintegrated when he went down, grabbing his hamstring on May 5 against the Chicago Cubs. While he avoided the worst, Pagán is set to be out for a while with a Grade 2 hamstring strain as Cincinnati's bullpen comes further unglued. For now, it's a bad situation, but down the road, it could become something even worse for the Reds.

Emilio Pagan's injury all but guarantees he'll be back with the Reds in 2027

At the time that Pagán re-upped with the Reds at the beginning of December, it was looking as if the club had gotten a steal. Saving 32 games and posting a 2.88 ERA in 2025, the righty filled the ninth-inning void and seemed to come in much cheaper than peers with similar production, as he signed a one-year, $10 million deal with a player option for another $10 million in 2027.

For the cash-strapped Reds, that was still a relatively large investment, even if the contracts given to similar players like Devin Williams or Robert Suarez dwarfed the commitment. Now, though, it's looking like it could be an anchor.

There was a good chance that Pagán picked up the option as he's struggled this year before getting hurt, but now it's almost a foregone conclusion. Given the amount of time he's likely to miss, it will be tough for him to bring his numbers back down to respectability, even if he goes on a roll once recovered.

Major League Baseball isn't quite as short-sighted as some other leagues, but there is a sense of "what have you done for me lately" that impacts how teams value players. If Pagán were to hit free agency with subpar numbers while simultaneously entering his age-36 season next year, other clubs would be reticent to give him anything near the $10 million he'd make by picking up his option.

Add in the fact that he's struggled with year-over-year consistency, posting a 2.99 ERA in 2023 followed by a 4.50 mark in 2024 then swinging back with a 2.88 ERA last season, and finally struggling again this year, he'd be considered quite the dart throw.

The problem for Cincinnati is that even if $10 million is less than some of the game's elite setup men get, it's still a large chunk of change for a franchise that consistently runs a payroll at the bottom of the league.

The best case scenario here is that Pagán comes back healthy and better than ever, because it seems like he'll also be a member of the Reds in 2026. Getting some momentum, while contributing to a 2026 playoff run down the stretch, will be imperative to save the club from disaster should he decide to return in 2027.

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