One overlooked Rhett Lowder fact makes his Reds return even more exciting

Baseball can be a “what have you done for me lately” sport. In the case of Rhett Lowder, “lately” has been pretty ugly, but Cincinnati Reds fans who are skeptical about the pitcher’s imminent return seem to have forgotten Lowder’s successes that preceded his injury.

It’s true that Lowder’s final two starts before landing on the IL were abysmal. He gave up a combined 11 runs and eight walks in 4⅓ innings. He was frankly un-Lowderlike. In his final start, he used his sinker, his most effective pitch, the least out of his four-pitch arsenal.

Nine of Lowder's last 10 pitches in that outing were balls, leading him to be lifted and placed on the IL. Much of this could be linked to his shoulder injury, meaning if the Reds get a healthy Lowder, they could be getting a dominant weapon.

Skepticism about Rhett Lowder’s Reds' return overlooks his tremendous talent

Unlike the version that couldn’t find the zone in early May, the “real” Rhett Lowder is a pitcher with impeccable control. In fact, according to FanGraphs’ Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+ metrics, command is the only area in which Lowder is better than average. He’s not trying to blow batters away; opponents make contact more than 80% of the time when they swing. Lowder’s pitches, when he is healthy, are crafty enough to induce poor contact.

This was the Lowder on display as he got into a groove in his final rehab start. In the first inning, he seemed to be shaking off some dust, allowing six pitches to be hit at 90 mph or more (two went foul). For the next four innings, he only allowed 90-plus mph contact six more times, one of which went foul. Lowder had a whiff rate of 56.3% on pitches outside the zone.

If Lowder keeps this form (and continues to limit hard contact) in his return to the Reds, he will provide a new dimension to the rotation. To balance out the power pitching of Chase Burns and to challenge managers with a different style of pitching, the Reds would do well to have a command-centric guy.

Andrew Abbott, who has a similar approach to pitching as Lowder though from the left side, hasn’t been able to find the zone and has a walk rate above 10%. There’s a need that perfectly fits Lowder’s skills.

Lowder is the Reds' scheduled starter for Sunday's series finale against the St. Louis Cardinals — a game Cincinnati need to win.

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