Nick Lodolo could dominate Reds trade rumors for reasons that make no sense

The Cincinnati Reds are going to have to find ways to add some thump to the lineup this offseason. While they could get some growth from players like Noelvi Marte and Elly De La Cruz, more will be needed if they want to go from a fun story to a legitimate October contender.

However, with a tight budget that's about to get tighter thanks to some arbitration raises that are projected to be sizable, the most likely avenue for the club to improve its offense is via the trade market.

The best chips Cincinnati has are its young, cost-controlled starters. Even with the likes of Nick Martinez and Zack Littell likely bolting in free agency, the Reds have more arms than spots available in the starting rotation, assuming everyone is healthy.

Hunter Greene is likely to be a fixture, and so will Andrew Abbott and Brady Singer. That's three spots accounted for. Meanwhile, top prospect Rhett Lowder is set to head to the Arizona Fall League after a 2025 campaign marred by injuries. Julian Aguiar and Brandon Williamson should be back and healthy for spring training as well, ready to compete for spots. Chase Petty could be a factor at some point in 2026, too.

That's seven potential options for the starting rotation without mentioning Nick Lodolo. The former seventh-overall pick out of TCU could be highly sought after on the trade market. Does that mean he should be the one who is moved in exchange for a bat? Not so fast.

Nick Lodolo is a better extension candidate for the Reds than a trade chip

The Reds had long awaited Lodolo's arrival. Debuting in 2022 with a 3.66 ERA over 19 starts, the lanky lefty looked like a future ace. However, a 6.29 ERA in 2023 and a 4.76 mark in 2024, as both campaigns were heavily impacted by injuries, led to some consternation. Can this guy stay healthy and be productive at the same time?

However, 2025 saw Lodolo stay mostly healthy. He missed a couple of starts in August with a blister, and then was pulled from his last start of the year with a groin injury. That might be enough to make you think, here we go again.

But the 27-year-old also made 28 starts, the most in his career, while tossing a career-high 156⅔ innings. His 3.33 ERA was also his best mark ever. Those are some pretty high-end numbers.

And while the injuries are a concern, none of them have been chronic, and he's avoided any sort of elbow or shoulder injuries that can be devastating. Put another way, just because he has a lengthy injury history doesn't mean that his guaranteed to consistently get hurt moving forward.

The groin injury at the end of the regular season might seem like a concern, but it's not. It didn't stop Lodolo from insisting to Terry Francona that he'd pitch in relief on the season's final day, as he wanted to do everything in his power to help Cincinnati clinch a playoff berth. He also threw 1⅔ scoreless innings in relief against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the playoffs.

That brand of feisty competitiveness should not be overlooked, and with his stuff, Lodolo can be a top-end starter. That's not something that you necessarily give away.

Instead, the better course of action might be an extension for the southpaw. With two years of arbitration remaining, his salary could skyrocket from the just under $2 million he made in 2025. By extending Lodolo now, the Reds can ensure that his rates remain manageable for the next two years, while also buying out a couple of free-agent years at a discount thanks to the injury history.

Bottom line, an extension isn't the gamble that it may seem, and the upside is massive. All the while, the Reds could still deal a young cost-controlled arm for an impact bat, just one that isn't Lodolo.