MLB mock drafts can’t stop connecting Reds to this high-upside flamethrower

No matter how a team’s season goes, there are always two days for optimism: Opening Day and the MLB Draft. The Cincinnati Reds hold the No. 9 pick in July’s festivities, and both MLB and ESPN mock drafts point to falling into a bit of luck and grabbing top prep pitcher Seth Hernandez.

Hernandez, a right-hander from Corona High School in California, has the skills to go much earlier, but conventional baseball wisdom shies away from high school pitchers. Since 2020, just two high school arms have been drafted in the Top 10: Jackson Jobe of the Tigers and Noble Meyer of the Marlins. The Reds haven’t snagged a prep pitcher with their first-round pick since Hunter Greene in 2017.

The Reds could luck into drafting the best pitcher in this year’s class

Standing 6-foot-4, Hernandez already has the look of a top prospect. His fastball has touched triple digits and comfortably sits in the mid-90s, and his changeup is getting a 70 grade from scouts. More astoundingly, he tasted his first loss in his high school career just this week.

There are, of course, concerns if the Reds do draft Hernandez. Even the best prep players have the potential to turn into a bust, or at the very least, they may need significant time to develop. Greene, for example, has only recently come into his own as the ace of Cincinnati’s staff. The increased innings and high-velocity expectations could also result in injury for a less developed arm.

Perhaps of most note, Hernandez has committed to Vanderbilt, whose vaunted pitching factory the Reds know well. It’s fairly unlikely that he would fail to sign if he went in the first round; last season just four players selected in the first 10 rounds did not sign.

More likely, Hernandez will be scooped up earlier in the draft. MLB Pipeline has him ranked as the second-best player in the draft, behind Ethan Holliday. That means that, for him to drop to the Reds, seven teams have to have greater concerns about him than his talent would balance out. Stranger things have happened on draft day, so Reds fans will just need to cross their fingers and hope for a string of good luck.

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