Mariners' lack of overall success provides cautionary tale for Reds' current model

The Reds’ addition of Brady Singer forms a potent rotation of youngsters with an average age of 28. Only Nick Martinez and Singer represent soon-to-be free agents in 2026 and ‘27, respectively, and by that time, Rhett Lowder, Chase Burns, and Chase Petty will likely be installed as the new guard.

But this bounty should not be taken for granted, lest the Reds suffer the same fate as another pitching-rich team: the Seattle Mariners.

Seattle has been the home of young pitching talent for the past several seasons. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and former Reds ace Luis Castillo form a potent Big Three, and Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo’s sub-3.00 ERAs in 2024 indicate they may be the stars of the future out West. 

The Reds need to bulk up on offense to avoid the Mariners’ fate

The rotation turns in quality starts at a rate that has ranked in the top three in the Majors for the past three seasons. Still, the Mariners have only made the postseason once in that span. That playoff run ended in a 3-0 sweep in the 2022 ALDS at the hands of the division-rival Astros.

Although that series turned on late-inning comebacks by Houston, the Mariners’ disappointments more broadly can be attributed to their lack of offense. In 2024, Seattle had the second-worst team batting average (.224) in the Majors, behind only the lowly White Sox. The M’s also slugged 23 points below league average and led the league in strikeouts.

How bad is the team on a player-by-player level? Mitch Garver, who was the Mariners’ primary DH, hit .172, which was worst in the Majors among players with 400 or more plate appearances. In fact, two of his teammates joined him in the bottom 25 in that category.

Now, the Mariners are entertaining offers to dismantle their rotation by trading Gilbert, who led the Majors in WHIP and innings pitched in 2024. In a league in which starters going deep into games is becoming more rare, parting with those attributes is a bold choice.

This is the fate that the Reds need to thwart. Cincy fans don’t want to see Hunter Greene on the chopping block just because the offense can’t back him. The Reds ranked fourth-worst in the Majors in OPS+ in 2024, indicating they're not making use of their hitter-friendly park. Ironically, the Reds ranked just ahead of the Mariners in unadjusted OPS, despite Seattle being above average in OPS+. This is due to T Mobile Park's being the definition of a pitcher's park.

The Reds need to bring in at least one big bat this offseason, most likely at a corner outfield position, and they'll likely need to work out the corner infield spots as well. If not, Cincinnati could be as disappointed over the coming years as Seattle has been, and that would be the ultimate shame.