The word on everyone’s lips this offseason is payroll. Despite the sneaky-good Hunter Greene extension, the Cincinnati Reds’ current financial state often earns more jeers than cheers. Nick Martinez’s qualifying offer has earned some of that derision, but the deal that could impact the Reds’ bottom line far into the future is Jeimer Candelario’s contract.
Last offseason, Candelario inked a three-year, $45 million pact with a club option for a fourth year at $15 million. To say that the switch-hitting corner infielder hasn’t lived up to expectations would be an understatement.
The Reds hoped they’d get the version of Candelario who slugged .503 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season or the version that exploded for 16 home runs and 53 RBI before being traded by the Washington Nationals to the Chicago Cubs in 2023. Instead, they got Candelario’s worst season ever. And signs point to further disappointment.
Jeimer Candelario is heading for a regression, so the Reds need to make peace with a buyout
First of all, Candelario has been predictably fragile. Since breaking into the majors with the Detroit Tigers in 2018, he has averaged just 127 games per year, not including the short 2020 season. He missed the final two months of 2024 with a broken toe, and he ended his Dominican Winter League season early by limping off the field with an undisclosed injury on December 16.
Even if Candelario regains his health and makes it through the season unscathed, age will quickly become a factor. Most players begin to rapidly regress beginning in their age-32 season; for Candelario, that’s 2026. Players who consistently hit the ball hard seem to weather that slump better than those who do not. Unfortunately for the Reds, Candelario has ranked in the bottom third of the league in hard-hit rate in every season except 2020.
All that is to say that Candelario will soon be over the hill in baseball terms, and he has not exhibited the mechanics, timing, and skills necessary for late-career success. While the projections for 2025 are somewhat kind – or at least indicate that this year will be better than the last – Candelario and his massive contract are the Reds’ bane.
Other teams likely know this as well, making it unlikely that the Reds will be able to move Candelario via trade. Instead, Cincinnati will have to hold on until his club option comes up in 2027. A $3 million buyout is attached to the deal, which could be a hard pill to swallow for a cash-strapped team, but essentially paying Candelario $3 million to play elsewhere might be better than $15 million to have him stay in Cincinnati.