Reds are paying the price after overplaying their hand with Nick Martinez

The payroll crunch is a perpetual factor for Cincinnati Reds President of Baseball Operations Nick Krall as he works towards putting together the best possible roster on the field for the 2025 campaign.

The team’s current payroll is slightly above last year's, coming in a hair over $100 million. The biggest chunk of that money — 21% to be precise — is allocated to a player who has never been seen as a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, and isn’t even guaranteed to be a starter when the 2025 season begins.

In November, Nick Martinez signed the qualifying offer from the Reds, exercising his option for the 2025 season at $21.05 million. One can’t help but wonder what the reaction was in the Reds’ front office when they received the news that Martinez actually signed the QO.

Did Nick Krall and the Reds front office really expect Nick Marinez to sign the qualifying offer?

The response may have been pleasantly surprised, but even if it was, there must have been a realization that this was a wrinkle in the plan of acquiring a right-handed power bat who can play in the outfield. Martinez’s decision came one week after the team traded Jonathan India and Joey Weimer to the Kansas City Royals for starter Brady Singer. Would they have made that trade had they known Martinez was sticking around?

To be clear, Martinez was quite good in 2024, going 10-7 with an ERA of 3.10 in 16 starts and 26 (mostly middle) relief appearances. In the month of September, Martinez was the brightest spot on a team that had fallen out of contention. He went 4-1 in five starts with a microscopic ERA of 0.83 and almost a strikeout per inning pitched. He rightfully earned the National League Pitcher of the Month honors for his Tom Seaver impersonation.

Where does Martinez fit in a rotation that may include Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, Andrew Abbott, and Rhett Lowder? If September wasn’t an illusion, he slots in behind Greene. If he looks more like the pitcher from earlier in the 2024 season — solid but unspectacular — he battles Abbott and Lowder in spring training for the last two slots.

What the true reaction to Martinez accepting the QO was we can’t be sure of, but we can be sure of what the hope for him now is. This will be the second year in a row that Martinez will be the highest paid player on the roster. The team and the fans will expect him to put up a solid season with 15-17 wins, keep the ball in the ballpark, and stay off the injured list. Otherwise, they will ruminate over the outfielder they couldn’t afford.

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