Hunter Greene's disatrous debut outing pushes Reds toward seller status at trade deadline

There was hope that Hunter Greene's return could have an outsized impact on the Cincinnati Reds. The ace right-hander would indirectly improve other areas of the club, like the struggling bullpen, via his ability to pitch effectively deep into games, and help the team right the ship and get back on a course towards contention.

Therefore, when it was announced that Greene would return on the Fourth of July, hopes were understandably high. Unfortunately, the 27-year-old laid an egg. While he had looked electric in rehab starts, Greene just didn't have it against the Baltimore Orioles. He lasted just 3 1/3 innings while allowing seven hits, four walks, eight earned runs, and striking out seven batters.

After the 8-5 defeat, Greene told reporters, "I just didn't do a good job channeling the adrenaline. Just sitting in my position, I've got to be able to do that, and usually I'm pretty good at it, but [I] failed on the execution part of being able to stay channel that, stay within my body, stay within myself, and not trying to do too much."

That's a reasonable explanation, and one that would have been perfectly acceptable on April 4, but on July 4, with Cincinnati's playoff hopes hanging by a thread, it comes up short. After coming back and winning in the series finale against the Orioles, the Reds are sitting seven games out of the final NL wild card spot, while the 14.5-game lead the Milwaukee Brewers have in the division chase seems insurmountable.

Regardless of whether Greene can get back on track over his next few starts, Cincinnati's fate as deadline sellers is sealed. The question now will be to what degree the club peddles its wares at the trade deadline.

Hunter Greene's debut meltdown leads to questions as to how dramatic the Reds' deadline sell-off will be

It's a no-brainer that the many chips the Reds possess on expiring contracts will likely find new homes by August 3. That means guys like Brady Singer, Eugenio Suarez, Brock Burke, and Nathaniel Lowe, among others, will be shopped heavily. There aren't a lot of teams that are fully out of the playoff race, so even though some of these guys are struggling, the Reds should be able to capitalize on a sellers' market and get some decent pieces back.

The real question is how this trade deadline will shape the organization's vision for the future. If the Reds only move on from the free-agents-to-be, they'll set themselves up to retool for another run in the offseason.

However, if they don't believe that this current core is enough to get the job done in 2027 and beyond, we could see more drastic action. Nick Lodolo could be on the move, and his remaining team control could make him a highly in-demand asset similar to some other starters rumored to be on the block.

Similar logic could dictate trading Greene. His salary is set to nearly double from $8.33 million in 2026 to $15.33 million in 2027. For Cincinnati, that's a lot of money. For another club, getting a potential ace of Greene's caliber for just $31.66 million over the next two seasons (and a total of $52.66 million if his 2029 club option is picked up) might be appealing enough to part with a treasure trove of assets, especially if he rebounds over his next couple of starts.

Then you get to the elephant in the room. Do the Reds dare consider trading away Elly De La Cruz? It sounds crazy, but he begins arbitration next season, and will only get more and more expensive. In the meantime, Cincinnati's failure to secure him to a long-term extension seems to foreshadow his eventual departure. Moving him now could yield the greatest haul possible.

The Reds aren't likely to do that. Nick Krall's comments and the team's past history make it seem like "Option A," a restrained sell-off of expiring veterans, is most likely in the cards, which leaves us wondering what it's all for. If that isn't followed up by a more lavish investment in the roster than normal, then it's likely that the Reds will be stuck in the mud and forced to repeat the same scenario over and over again.

The club is just good enough to get in on the edges of contention, but not good enough to make some true noise. It's like Groundhog Day, repeating the same disappointment year in and year out.

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