Graham Ashcraft ditched a winning formula and it's costing the Reds bullpen big time

Early in the season, Graham Ashcraft was looking like the Cincinnati Reds’ MVP. In his first season as a reliever, the right-hander cruised through April, allowing just one earned run in 11 appearances. Lately, though, his luck seems to have run out, and a troubling stat may be to blame.

As of May 27, Ashcraft ranks in the 95th percentile or better in chase rate, ground-ball rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate. In other words, he has been doing exactly what a shut-down reliever should do: keep the ball on the ground and generate soft contact. Many of those stats, though, are thanks to his stellar first month when he produced a 79.3 mph average exit velocity and gave up just two extra-base hits. Boy, how times have changed.

Reds reliever Graham Ashcraft has shifted away from a ground-ball heavy approach, and the results are embarrassing

In May, Ashcraft has hit the gas pedal. His cutter has ticked up in velocity, and he seems to be chasing strikeouts. Unfortunately, the extra zip has also come with the byproduct of a higher hard-hit rate. Nearly half of Ashcraft’s cutters this month have been launched at 95-plus mph, which has increased the opponents’ expected batting average from .249 to .342.

Ashcraft’s slider, his secondary pitch, has been slightly less effective than it was in April. The pitch still commands a sub-.150 expected batting average, but the hard-hit rate in May off the breaking pitch is 50%. Even worse, all of his sliders in the past two weeks have been hard hit. That is, if the player makes contact. The pitch also had a 63% strikeout rate over that span.

The truth is Ashcraft has never been a strikeout guy. Despite his top-notch velocity, he has never ranked better than the 14th percentile in strikeout rate. He has, however, been one of the top ground-ball artists, landing in the 92nd percentile in 2022 and in at least the top quarter in his other two seasons.

Simply put, Ashcraft is getting away from who he is as a pitcher. He needs to become the player who ranked in the top 10 among relievers in ground-ball rate and hard-hit rate in the month of April. He needs to forget about the guy who is closing in on the top 10 in K/9 in the month of May. If Ashcraft can find his way back to himself, he and the Reds could turn things around.

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