Former Reds icon makes Sal Stewart's case against JJ Wetherholt even stronger

The discourse surrounding this year's race for NL Rookie of the Year has reached levels of comedy that America hasn't seen since TGIF on ABC back in the early-1990s. Cincinnati Reds slugger Sal Stewart and St. Louis Cardinals infielder JJ Wetherholt have baseball fans tripping over themselves trying to prove who should win this year's NL Rookie of the Year Award.

On one end are the sane and rational individuals who've watched Stewart pummel baseballs all season long. Heading into play on Tuesday, Stewart leads all National League rookies in home runs (25), RBI (87), and slugging percentage (.475). He should be leading the NL Rookie of the Year race, and most Reds fans assume he is.

However, others who put forth illogical and foolish opinions — we'll just call them Cardinals fans — claim that elite-level defensive plays and Wins Above Replacement (WAR) should push Wetherholt to the front of the line. This argument might hold water if Wetherholt wasn't hitting below his weight for the past month.

WAR has become the end-all, be-all stat that fans and pundits love to turn to when comparing players. Recently New York Post columnist even used the fallacies of WAR to debunk the idea that Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong deserves this year's NL MVP over Shohei Ohtani. Heyman used the word "imprecise",and that's probably the best way to describe WAR.

As things stand currently, Wetherholt holds a massive advantage over Stewart in terms of WAR. Whether you want to use Baseball Reference (bWAR) or FanGraphs (fWAR) or make up your own stat, Wetherholt has the upper hand.

Wetherholt (4.6 bWAR and 4.2 fWAR) is a tremendous defender, and that's led to his WAR being more than double what Stewart (1.7 bWAR and 1.9 fWAR) has produced this season. But Stewart leads the Cardinals rookie in hits (113 to 108), home runs (25 to 16), RBI (87 to 45), batting average (.255 to .249), slugging percentage (.475 to .387), OPS (.807 to .740), OPS+ (119 to 111), and wRC+ (113 to 110).

But let's expand this line of thinking just a little bit and compare Wetherholt's rookie numbers to another elite defensive second baseman that Reds fans know all too well: Brandon Phillips.

Reds' Gold Glover Brandon Phillips has a lower WAR than Cardinals' rookie JJ Wetherholt

Phillips, who was inducted into the Reds Hall of Fame this year, was unequivocally one of the best defensive second baseman of his generation. He won four Gold Gloves during his 17-year career, and from 2008 to 2013 was regarded as one of the most dynamic defenders in the league. Even Cardinals fans, as much as they hated DatDude BP, would have to agree.

With that in mind, let's compare stats from Wetherholt's rookie campaign (which currently stands at just 112 games) to Phillips' first All-Star season in 2010 — a year in which he also won his second Gold Glove Award.

In 2010, Phillips played in 155 games and had 172 hits, 18 home runs, 59 RBI, and 16 stolen bases while hitting .275/.332/.430. But despite Phillips leading Wetherholt in every meaningful statistical category outside of on-base percentage, the WAR machine decided that was worth 3.9 bWAR and 3.8 fWAR — less than Wetherholt's WAR this season. Those numbers just don't add up.

None of this is meant to disaparage Wetherholt's defensive abilities. He should win both the Gold Glove and Platinum Glove at second base this season. But his performance at the plate leaves a lot to be desired. Since the All-Star break, the Cardinals infielder is hitting just .195/.333/.322. During that same span, Stewart owns a .247/.304/.481 slash line.

The Reds rookie is beginning to put some distance between himself and Wetherholt. Frankly, with all things being equal, Colorado Rockies first baseman TJ Rumfield (.295/.372/.457) has a better argument than Wetherholt at this point.

If you need further proof that WAR itself is an imperfect stat and can't be used as the end-all, be-all when it comes to doling out this year's NL Rookie of the Year Award, take a look at a recent social media post comparing Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber to Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Taylor Walls.

Despite Schwarber leading Walls in every meaningful category by a wide margin, both players have the same 2.4 bWAR. Schwarber has 33 home runs to Walls' zero, and the Phillies' slugger owns an OPS that's 300 points higher. Yet somehow, Walls' elite defense pushes him into a tie when it comes to Wins Above Replacement. But no one in their right mind will claim that Walls is the better player.

Defense is important, but trying to quantify it into a statistic and using that as part of an argument is a fool's errand. And let's not pretend like Stewart is a bad defender either. He's played three different positions this season — something that's oftentimes overlooked — and has just two errors on the year.

The NL Rookie of the Year chase isn't as close as some would have you believe, and if Stewart ends the year with 30-plus homers and 100-plus RBI, all this discourse will be moot.

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