Trading Hunter Greene might break the Reds (and here's the part no one’s saying)

Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer sent Cincinnati Reds fans into a tailspin this week when he suggested that the team should trade Hunter Greene. While Wittenmyer’s position is both reasonable and well argued, parting ways with the club’s ace has consequences beyond just the loss of his skill on the mound. Rather, trading Greene could cause irreparable damage in the clubhouse.

At this point, Greene is the only player on the Reds’ roster that has signed a long-term deal. In signing a team-friendly deal that would keep him in Cincinnati through 2028 with a club option for 2029, Greene made a commitment to the franchise and demonstrated the loyalty and buy-in that the Reds hope to see from their other young players. Leveraging that contract simply for trade value may send a negative message to a roster full of young players the Reds may be interested in extending.

Trading ace Hunter Greene may upend morale in the Reds’ clubhouse

In order for the Reds to get their money’s worth in a Greene trade and avoid destroying team morale, they would need to get a player that could completely turn around the season and that would be under contract for at least a couple of years. On the teams looking for starting pitching and selling at the deadline, there aren’t that many such players available. Is Jarren Duran’s .748 OPS really going to be the thing that turns around the Reds’ season? What about Taylor Ward’s .260 on-base percentage?

Let’s say that Greene stays in Cincinnati but only makes 20 starts per year due to injury. If he continues to pitch close to the level he has this season or even regresses a bit, he could still put up 2.5 fWAR each year. Only 13 Reds starters, including Greene in 2024, have had such a valuable season in the past 25 years. Prior to this season, ZIPS projected Greene to post a 3.1 fWAR if healthy, which would have been the 16th best season by a Reds starter since the year 2000.

Yes, the Reds’ window, like that of most small-market clubs, is small. It feels like they need to make the postseason at least once in Terry Francona’s three guaranteed years. But banking on untested prospects to fill the shoes of your ace when you’re also going to have to fill Nick Martinez and Wade Miley’s spots in the rotation at season’s end feels too short-sighted.

Maybe the Reds are a team that can make the postseason with one big addition, but they can’t rob Peter to pay Paul. Extending Greene was about building around the young core; trading him could cause that whole mission to collapse.

More Cincinnati Reds News and Rumors