ESPN's latest Hunter Greene's trade odds will spark optimism among Reds fans

With the annual MLB Winter Meetings coming up later this week in Orlando, Cincinnati Reds' ace Hunter Greene is sure to find himself in a myriad of rumors once again.

The ideal outcome of all this, of course, is the Reds choosing to hang onto Greene and going all-in on the 2026 season. The rotation is clearly strong enough to compete for at least a division championship, and after re-signing Emilio Pagán to a two-year deal, a few additions to the lineup could put Cincinnati in the driver's seat.

As such, it should be music to the ears of all Reds fans that MLB insiders Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN don't foresee Greene being traded this offseason. The national pundits assigned the flame-throwing right-hander just a 10% chance of being dealt this winter.

Hunter Greene has more value to Reds as an ace than a trade chip

Passan and McDaniel cited Dylan Cease's mega-contract with the Toronto Blue Jays as a big reason the Reds are likely to hold onto Greene. The Reds righty is under contract for four more years at $60 million, and Cease just signed with Toronto for $210 million over seven years.

One could argue, of course, that Greene's team-friendly deal only makes him even more valuable as a trade chip, which is true in a vacuum. If the Reds were rebuilding, they could command a huge trade package in exchange for the 26-year-old hurler.

But the Reds aren't rebuilding. They finally broke back into the postseason in 2025, and despite being swept by the eventual champion Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL Wild Card Series, Cincinnati looks primed to be one of the top teams in the National League next season — thanks in large part to Greene and their starting pitching. A rotation fronted by Greene, Andrew Abbott, and Nick Lodolo is one of few that can compete with the Dodgers' ridiculous cache of arms.

The Reds aren't likely to give Greene the contract he'll want once he reaches free agency after the 2029 season, but that's four years away. The team's competitive window is now — trading your best player isn't likely to help boost morale or championship odds.