ESPN's costly trade proposal continues to ignore Reds' biggest flaw

For much of the 2024 season, Reds fans have been entertained by a will-they-won’t-they drama between Cincinnati and the A’s. Visions of outfield Brent Rooker filling out the Cincinnati Reds’ lineup with a big bat swirled around the trade deadline and have cropped up again this winter, despite the A’s insistence that Rooker will not be traded.

If Rooker is truly off the table, the Reds may want to count their blessings. While the Silver Slugger Award winner would be a boon to Cincinnati’s offense, his lackluster glove would only hold the Reds back.

Although Brent Rooker’s bat is undeniable, his mediocre defense is a bad fit for the Reds

The A’s themselves recognized this limitation, starting Miguel Andujar over Rooker in left despite Andujar’s -7 outs above average at the position. On paper, Rooker seems like a better choice with -2 outs above average, but considering he only had 18 attempts in left all season, his OAA is concerning. Rooker’s success rate was 13% below the expected catch probability on these attempts. 

As a result, Rooker cost the A’s 1.4 wins above replacement due to his defense. That is worse than every player on the 2024 Reds roster, which ranked in the exact middle of MLB teams for defensive efficiency. An average team shouldn’t compromise defense at the expense of offense.

Rooker’s sudden rise to prominence also feels too suspicious to offer him the DH job. His adjustments in 2024 led to a breakout offensive season in which he placed in the top 10 in barrel rate, expected slugging percentage, and hard-hit rate. We’ve seen this story before, though. The Marlins’ Jake Burger jumped into the top 10 in barrel rate last season before seeing a regression in 2024. Joc Pederson and Bobby Dalbec had similar experiences in 2022 and ‘21, respectively.

It seems like every year there’s an anomaly in the barrel rate charts. One player who emerges from seemingly nowhere and joins the ranks of Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuna Jr., Aaron Judge, and other slugging stars. Burger, Pederson, Dalbec, Mike Zunino, Brandon Lowe, and the list goes on. On average, these upstarts have seen their barrel rate fall by roughly 4.7% the following year while their expected slugging rate dropped 91 points.

No one would blame the Reds for pursuing more offense, but Rooker’s questionable defense and risk of regression are too much of a risk, especially when there are more appealing trade candidates to be had.

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