Emilio Pagán's contract projection makes Reds' next move painfully obvious

The Cincinnati Reds have a handful of free agents who are set to hit the open market once the World Series comes to a close. The most polarizing name on the list of would-be free agents is sure to be relief pitcher Emilio Pagán.

Pagán was elevated to the role of closer last season, and found plenty of success. After battling through injuries during his first season in Cincinnati, the right-hander became one of Terry Francona's most reliable relievers in 2025. Pagán made 70 appearances out of the Reds bullpen and posted a 2.88 ERA, 3.72 FIP, and 30% strikeout rate while recording a career-best 32 saves.

Pagán inked a two-year, $16 million deal in 2023, and he's bound to receive a raise this offseason. Jim Bowden of The Athletic (subscription required), recently projected what the top-50 MLB free agents can hope to sign for this offseason, and his two-year, $22 million prediction for Pagán should have the Reds rushing to sign the veteran before he hits the open market.

Emilio Pagán's contract projection should have the Reds running to re-sign him

For those who don't like the idea of paying Pagán $11 million per season, don't forget Cincinnati just handed Nick Martinez a one-year, $21 million deal to be a hybrid pitcher this past season. The Reds are set to lose Martinez this winter and may see Brent Suter, Sam Moll, and Scott Barlow exit as well. That's a lot of innings to replace.

While the Reds have several talented young relief pitchers like Tony Santillan, Zach Maxwell, Connor Phillips, and Graham Ascraft, it would unwise to assume that all four will build off their success from 2025 and be able to shoulder an even bigger load in 2026.

Pagán is arguably the most important Reds player Cincinnati's front office will look to re-sign this winter — though a good case can be made for Miguel Andujar as well. Pagán has already voiced a desire to return to Cincinnati in 2026, and even though this contract projection might dictate it, nothing says that he'd have to remain the Reds' closer next season.

Much like Martinez last winter, there's value in having a reliable veteran who brings calming presence into the clubhouse. Cincinnati may decide that keeping Pagán at that price is too expensive, but replacing him for less money might cost them even more in the long run.