Chase Burns gets his All-Star moment before Reds face a tough decision

There haven't been a lot of bright spots for the Cincinnati Reds this season, as the club has failed to build upon the optimism that last year's playoff appearance had generated, but one player who has stepped into the spotlight and established himself as a bona fide star is Chase Burns.

The 23-year-old is a well-deserved All-Star, and his performance has put the pressure on the Reds to sign him to contract extension and build around him moving forward. With that comes a heightened sense of urgency to protect the prized asset.

Many teams in this position would deny their young phenom the opportunity to pitch in the exhibition, but Cincinnati acknowledges the importance of letting Burns fully enjoy the honor he has deservingly earned. The Reds had initially planned to let him pitch in the Midsummer Classic, but after tweaking his groin during his previous start, Burns will no longer participate in All-Star Game itself.

The 2024 first-round pick is still building up his arm as a professional, and with that comes monitoring his innings. Francona spoke to this fact at the end of May, and while he wouldn't commit to an innings restriction, he made it clear that how Burns responds throughout the season will be something they'll watch like a hawk.

Reds starter Chase Burns could be shut down shortly after the All-Star break

Cincinnati's playoff hopes might not be dead yet, but the chances of contending are circling the drain. With the trade deadline roughly three weeks away, the Reds will have to declare their intentions soon.

That clarity will give them the ability to swiftly make decisions for the good of the ball club's future. Burns is a big part of that future, so how they handle him moving forward will be critical.

Burns' only full pro season came last year, and he logged a total of 109⅓ innings. Overextending him too far past that point dramatically increases the risk of a traumatic arm injury, which must be avoided at all costs as the Reds look to the future.

The typical rule of thumb with young pitchers is that you don't want them to see more than a 25% increase in innings from year to year. In the case of the budding right-hander, 136 frames would represent what a 25% lift from last year's workload would look like.

We can round that up to 140 innings, but really going any further than that means playing with fire. If Burns gets to 140 innings this season, that means another 25% increase in 2027 would put him at a limit of 175 innings, and by that point, the training wheels will fully come off.

So, that means Burns is going to get to enjoy his time in Philadelphia this week, then make a couple more starts, and will likely be shut down for the season. It'll make Reds games a little less fun to watch if the team is truly out of contention in August and September, but it's for the best for both the player and the team moving forward.

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