The Cincinnati Reds answered a lot of long-term questions last week with their decision to extend Chase Burns to a seven-year deal. There's a lot of risk associated with giving a young pitcher this much money, but it also establishes the All-Star as one of the faces of the franchise for years to come.
Of course, the question now becomes about what's next. Most Reds fans are pining for a Sal Stewart or Elly De La Cruz extension, though it's hard to figure out how much the ownership group is willing to commit financially to the core ahead of the impending lockout.
Perhaps the best course of action is to look into the past at an eerily similar contract handed to former Reds pitcher Homer Bailey. His six-year, $105 million deal was meant to be the pièce de résistance to a long line of previous extensions. This time, the Reds will have to do things in reverse.
What are the Reds' next steps after signing Chase Burns to a long-term deal?
Over a three-and-a-half year stretch from 2010-14, the Reds extended four members of their roster to long-term deals: Jay Bruce (six years, $51 million), Johnny Cueto (four years, $27 million), and Joey Votto (10 years, $225 million). Although the finances of baseball have changed significantly in the ensuing decade, Reds fans can draw some comparisons to the modern-day team.
The key to Burns' deal would of course be that is ages better than Bailey's — the right-hander of yesteryear recorded a 5.27 ERA in the first five seasons after signing. He was then traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2018. There are some reasons to buy into that optimism, as Burns already has more All-Star nods on his résumé and is four years younger than Bailey was at the time of his extension.
It's easy enough to suggest that De La Cruz is the Votto of today's day and age, while Stewart represents Bruce. Fans know the Reds tried to make their shortstop the highest-paid player in franchise history, but his price tag is only going up in the midst of another breakout season. Might Burns' contract convince him to reconsider putting pen to paper?
Finding the Cueto of this generation could be somewhat difficult, though perhaps Hunter Greene's existing six-year extension checks that box. There's plenty of other pitchers also worthy of long-term money, including Reds' lefty Andrew Abbott.
Of course, the real first step is engaging with these players in extension talks, which the front office reportedly hasn't yet done. Signing Burns was a smart move in what's shaping up to be a lost season, but resting on their laurels with a blueprint in hand is something the Reds can't afford to do.
