Andrew Abbott is quietly becoming the Reds’ next big extension priority

The Cincinnati Reds’ decision to extend Chase Burns has infused both the fanbase and the locker room with hope for more deals to come. While the real prize, superstar Elly De La Cruz, seems like a long shot to settle in Cincinnati for the long haul, other homegrown talent could be next in line for a long-term deal. Starting pitcher Andrew Abbott, for example, has been outspoken regarding his willingness to commit to the Reds.

Abbott had a breakout season in 2025 when he made his first All-Star Game and finished in the Top 10 in Cy Young voting. This year has been a different story. His fastball, which was elite last season, has a -4 run value and a 48.2% hard-hit rate.

Luckily, the Reds are able to play a bit of a waiting game to see which version of Abbott is the real deal, and given the looming CBA negotiations and potential lockout, easing into extension talks may be a wise move.

Reds pitcher Andrew Abbott seems willing to commit, but that comes with risks

The biggest cause for pause here is Abbott’s inflated walk rate, which has climbed to 10.5%. He lived on the edge, literally, last season, amassing a 25 run value on pitches in the shadow of the plate. He lacks the high heat that can overpower batters, so he needs to change speeds and work the edges of the zone to get outs.

With the new ABS system, he has perhaps been forced further into the zone than he’d like, resulting in the loud contact or an overcorrection outside of the zone. He is at a career low in terms of percentage of pitches on the edge of the zone and swing rate. With time, it’s possible that he will correct these flaws.

The Reds and Abbott certainly have time. He’s under teams control through the 2029 season and is only making $800,000 this year. His weak season could help to keep his salary low as he enters his first year of arbitration this coming winter.

If Abbott rebounds, he could be a solid No. 3 or 4 pitcher behind nearly minted ace Burns and Hunter Greene. If he continues to struggle, the Reds have a wealth of other young players they could sway with their money.

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