Casey Mize sounds tempting for Reds, but a familiar option makes far more sense

While the Cincinnati Reds need a back-of-the-rotation starter, getting an arm with front-end upside would be an ideal proposition. The Reds won't be able to spend top dollar, of course, but if they search hard enough in the middle tier of free-agent starters, they might be able to find a high-upside arm.

The one that best fits that bill would be Casey Mize, a former No. 1 overall pick in 2018, who finally started to reach his potential in 2025. When Mize was traded from the Detroit Tigers to the San Diego Padres at the trade deadline, he looked every bit the ace, posting a 2.70 ERA in the Motor City.

However, once Mize landed in San Diego, the narrative changed almost immediately. He was dreadful down the stretch, recording a 7.46 ERA over his final 10 starts as his strikeouts cratered to a 12% rate and the home runs he allowed skyrocketed to 2.62 HR/9.

Jim Bowden has predicted that Mize will land a three-year, $54 million contract. Cincinnati might be able to fit that $18 million AAV into the budget, but it wouldn't leave much wiggle room for the club to do anything else. That begs the question: Would the expenditure actually be worth it, or would the club be better off reuniting with a familiar face and using some cost savings to upgrade other areas of the roster?

It's hard to see how Casey Mize is a surefire upgrade over Brady Singer, especially when money is factored in

At a certain point, this is about the sum of the parts being greater than the whole. If the Reds were to spend big money on Mize and forego upgrades at third base, catcher, and in the outfield, it's hard to say they'd be better off by addressing some of those needs and simply reuniting with Brady Singer.

Singer has his own issues, for sure. He finished with a 5.85 ERA this year, a truly egregious mark. With that said, his past track record makes the 2026 struggles look like an outlier. There are reasons to believe that if he goes back to what worked for him in Kansas City, Singer can once again emerge as a reliable inning eater.

When it comes to Mize, reliably eating innings has been an issue for most of his career. Early in his career, Mize underwent Tommy John surgery, missing all but two starts in 2022 and the entirety of 2023. Since then, a variety of lower-body injuries have impacted him in every season. The 29-year-old has never thrown more than 150⅓ innings and managed just 131⅓ frames in 2026.

Meanwhile, Singer has made at least 29 starts in each of the last four seasons and thrown a minimum of 153 innings in each of the last five campaigns. The vast majority of the time, he's done that while posting a league-average or better performance.

Then there's the stylistic fit in Great American Ball Park. Neither Mize nor Singer is known for being a strikeout artist, with the former Detroit Tiger coming in with a 19.6% strikeout rate for his career and a 20% mark in 2026, while Singer has recorded a career strikeout rate of 21.3% and a 17.4% clip in 2026. The difference comes in how often each hurler keeps the ball on the ground.

Mize's 33% ground ball rate this year was the lowest rate of his career, and his career average is a roughly average 41.7%. Singer generated grounders at a 41.4% clip in 2026, and a 46.2% rate for his career. That matters a lot in a ballpark where anything in the air has a chance to leave the yard.

This isn't an either/or proposition, of course. There are other alternatives outside of these two pitchers that the Reds can turn to. This is more an indictment of Mize, who has the flashier name and the more impressive pedigree. Those résumé-builders will mean a higher price tag, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the value proposition is a good one.

If forced to choose between the two, Cincinnati would likely be better off with Singer and more money to spend elsewhere than having Mize alone be the significant addition this offseason.

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