Brady Singer went from QO candidate to risky Reds free agent target

Since arriving in Cincinnati in the Jonathan India trade prior to the 2025 season, Brady Singer has been a picture of consistency in an oft-injured rotation. Over the past two seasons, he has made more starts than any other Reds pitcher, but the quality of those starts has been middling at best. Now, the Reds need to decide whether to extend the right-hander a qualifying offer, re-sign him, or let him walk in free agency.

Until 2026, Singer seemed on track to be a no-brainer for a QO even at the rate of $23.1 million. He was a lock to give you 160 innings of controlled, solid baseball. He keeps runners off the bases, averaging around three walks per nine innings, and saves the bullpen by averaging 5⅓ innings per outing. Then came this season, which threw all that consistency into doubt.

A rough year for Brady Singer puts the Reds in a difficult spot

In 2026, Singer ranked in the absolute bottom of every meaningful pitching metric. He produced a -38 pitching run value, and his pitches were crushed with an average exit velocity of 91.1 mph. His sinker, which he threw more than 50% of the time, floated in the middle of the zone and allowed opponents a .447 slugging percentage. Even worse, his slider, his best pitch in previous years, produced a .302 opponent’s batting average, up from .195 in 2025. 

What good is going deep into games and taking the ball every fifth day if the results on the field are so poor? That’s what the Reds’ front office needs to wrestle with now. Perhaps the team will have faith that whoever replaces pitching coach Derek Johnson can turn Singer back into a player worth a qualifying offer. (If the Reds do make the offer, they are almost guaranteed to shell out. Singer won’t be getting those figures if he hits the open market.)

The Reds could also be gunshy with the recent Nick Martinez debacle. Just two years ago, Cincinnati extended a QO to the versatile pitcher, who, like Singer, seemed to be the missing piece that stabilized a young and injury-prone staff. Martinez accepted, put up uninspiring numbers, and then signed with the Rays for $10 million less than the Reds paid him in 2025. Oh, and then he became an All-Star and a key member of a playoff squad.

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