Brady Singer's contract projection is the clearest sign the Reds need to move on

In terms of simply showing up every five days, there are few pitchers in Major League Baseball who are as reliable as Brady Singer. His 2026 campaign marked the fifth straight season in which he tossed at least 150 innings, and the third consecutive in which he made at least 30 starts.

Health and availability can be hard to count on these days, which is why the Cincinnati Reds' right-hander still has quite a bit of perceived value around the league despite his ugly effort this past season.

There's a pretty wide gap, however, between reasonable and ludicrous, and Spotrac's current contract projection is leaning toward the latter; two years and $33.5 million after the season Singer just had is an impossible sell.

Re-signing him has always been a nice backup plan in case other offseason pursuits didn't work out, but at the price point, it would behoove the Reds to simply move on.

Reds must pass on Brady Singer reunion if contract projections reflect reality

A lot of people will focus on 5.85 ERA or 5.62 FIP Singer recorded this year, and for good reason. Those are pretty good indications that he didn't do a great job of fulfilling his duties as a pitcher — i.e. keeping the opposing team from scoring.

Even more unfathomable is what the advanced metrics reflected; all five of his pitches were worth -4 run value or worse. He finished as the second-worst pitcher in the league with -39 pitching run value. That stat grades a player on the individual outcomes of each pitch he throws or sees, and it suggests that Singer was arguably the worst pitcher in baseball. Yikes.

Thus, Singer pitched himself out of qualifying offer territory, which is slated to cost $23.15 million for a one-year deal. A more realistic salary is the one he just earned in 2026 ($12.75 million), though even that sounds a bit pricey if he's looking for a multi-year deal. His ability to eat innings and stay healthy will absolutely add a few million more to his bank account than we might otherwise expect, but at some point, it has to be about more than just durability.

The good news for the Reds is that there will be a number of back-end-of-the-rotation types available in free agency, including some with recent postseason experience like Dustin May and Kris Bubic. Few of the arms in that tier have as high of a floor as Singer, but they should all come at a far more affordable price.

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