Andrew Abbott is pitching exactly how Reds hoped even if the box score says otherwise

Andrew Abbott entered the 2026 season as the Cincinnati Reds most important starting pitcher. That might have been the case anyway, but if there was any doubt, Hunter Greene's injury and Nick Lodolo's glacial blister recovery confirmed it. So, with Abbott owning a 5.85 ERA through four starts, it's officially time to panic, right?

After all, the projection systems were down on Abbott heading into the year, and his spring training performance left something to be desired. It would seem that all the reasons to be concerned are coming to a head, and his season is doomed.

Andrew Abbott is evolving and that's a great thing for the Reds

First and foremost, this is the time of year when the words "small sample" can excuse away almost anything. Soon, that won't be an excuse anymore, but for now, Abbott is a perfect example of why we need to take early-season stat lines with a significant grain of salt.

Prior to his last start against the Los Angeles Angels on April 12, Abbott had a very Abbott-like 3.18 ERA through his first three outings. A three-inning start where he gave up seven earned runs changed all of that.

But even then, Abbott wasn't as bad as the stat line suggested. While he said all of the right things after the debacle, he also pointed out the real truth that's buried beneath the ugly ERA.

Abbott gave credit to the Angels' hitters for hitting his offerings and took the blame for not stepping up and making pitches when he needed to. You like to hear that, but the most illuminating thing is what he had to say about the type and quality of contact he gave up.

"Something that we've talked about this spring training was trying to induce ground balls. Like I said earlier, it's not to our guys at this point. There's nothing wrong with it. I mean, it's still soft contact. I think I gave up like two batted balls over 95 [miles per hour], so, you know, I'm doing what I need to do," Abbott said.

Remember those poor projections? The driving force behind them was Abbott's fly ball rate in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. The 26-year-old generated ground balls at a 31.8% rate last season. His career-best mark is 33.7% in 2024. So far this year, he's inducing worm-burners at a 50.7% clip. They're not rockets, either. His hard-hit rate is a well-above-average 35.7%.

Abbott isn't a power strikeout arm like Greene or Chase Burns. He's always made his living on weak contact, often generating pop-ups and lazy fly balls. It's hard to argue with the results, but having such an extremely low ground ball rate leaves a slim margin for error. By drastically improving that, Abbott has set himself up to take the next step.

The lefty is already one of the best pitchers in baseball, but if he's able to sustain this ground ball rate through the season, he'll be well set up for success. Should he truly become a heavy groundball pitcher, it will only make him more dominant overall.

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