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Alfredo Duno could give Reds the rare chance to copy Brewers' winning formula

Fortune favors the bold.
Nov 9, 2025; Mesa, AZ, USA; Cincinnati Reds catcher Alfredo Duno during the Arizona Fall League Fall Stars Game at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Nov 9, 2025; Mesa, AZ, USA; Cincinnati Reds catcher Alfredo Duno during the Arizona Fall League Fall Stars Game at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Doing more with less is what will prove to be a winning formula for the Cincinnati Reds. It's a recipe that Nick Krall is still fine-tuning ever since he ascended to the top dog role within the front office.

The thing is, though, sometimes you don't have to chart your own course. Sometimes, the map has already been drawn, and all you need to do is follow it. The Reds might look no further than their division rival, the Milwaukee Brewers, as an example to steal from.

From a financial aspect, there isn't a team more comparable to Cincinnati than the Brewers. The Reds have a payroll that counts as $150.8 million towards the luxury tax threshold, coming in 19th in baseball. Milwaukee sits directly behind them at $144.4 million. The difference between the two clubs is that the Brewers have made the postseason in seven of the last eight seasons, while the Reds have done so just twice in the past 12 campaigns.

One thing that Milwaukee has been doing that the Reds have failed at is locking up young stars. The highest profile example was the Brewers giving Jackson Chourio an eight-year, $82 million deal before he made his major league debut, and they've struck twice this year with extensions for their No. 4 overall prospect Cooper Pratt, and most recently with No. 5 prospect, Luis Lara.

Lara's is the most interesting in that it is only a $31 million commitment spread over seven years. Three more club options can max it out at $79 million, but given the overall affordability, Milwaukee isn't really losing anything by foregoing the typical pre-arb savings since those prices are baked into the contract.

That's all well and good, but what about the Reds, you may ask. Well, they might be arriving at a point soon where it makes sense to copy this strategy with No. 1 prospect Alfredo Duno.

Alredo Duno could earn an extension from the Reds before his MLB debut

While Lara is a speedy, defensive wizard who has made great strides in making contact, Duno is a powerful, patient hitter who is wise beyond his years at the dish. He's the type of prospect who, if he reaches his ceiling as a catcher, will get paid an extravagant sum.

But, he's also still just in High-A, though the way he's been tearing it up in Dayton, he might not be there for long. The 20-year-old has double-dingers dingers and a 15.4% walk rate, and the only real offensive concern is his strikeout rate creeping back up to 27% after falling to a career-best 18.4% last year in Daytona.

He seems ticketed for Double-A soon, and could see Triple-A action as early as the very end of this season, though 2027 is a more likely timeline. Once he proves himself for a handful of games at the minors' highest level, the Reds should be tripping over themselves to hand him the bag.

Cincinnati already missed the boat last year with Sal Stewart and Chase Burns. While extensions are certainly still in play for those young cornerstones, the way they've played in the bigs thus far has already upped the ante.

With Duno, they have the chance to get this right. It's not without risk, and as a big-bodied catcher, the youngster is more susceptible to injury than most, but without risk, there is no reward. Locking up Duno long-term could end up being the bargain that lets the club be more aggressive in other areas, and could lead to an absolutely intoxicating payoff when all is said and done.

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