Reds vs. Phillies: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Phillies

Tyler Mahle (9-3 3.78 ERA) takes the mound tonight, facing the Phillies ace Zack Wheeler (10-6 2.42 ERA). The Cincinnati Reds right-hander is coming off arguably his best start of the season.

Tossing seven innings, Mahle allowed just two runs while fanning 10 Pittsburgh Pirates. Perhaps most impressive, it was his first start since May 15th without issuing a free pass. However, Philadelphia has given the California native fits in two appearances.

The Phillies have tattooed Mahle for five earned runs in six innings, including three round-trippers.  In his only start at Citizens Bank Park, he lasted just one frame allowing six hits and three runs. One would hope this start can only go better for the 26-year-old.

More from Blog Red Machine

• Reds: Extension for Tyler Mahle should surpass Antonio Senzatela’s deal
• Reds: Michael Lorenzen’s 2021 season derailed by one bad inning
• Reds: Reiver Sanmartin played his way onto the 2022 roster
• Reds: Aristides Aquino does not receive passing grade for 2021 season
• Reds report card: Grading Luis Cessa’s 2021 season

Speaking of impressive performances, it’s tough to pitch any better than Zack Wheeler did his last time on the bump. The right-hander pitched a complete game two-hit shutout while punching out 11 Mets.

Lifetime Wheeler has made four starts versus the Reds and has held them to one earned run in three of those appearances while hurling at least six innings. Tossing 25 frames against the Redlegs, he’s whiffed 23 without allowing a gopher ball.

Saturday afternoon, Luis Castillo (6-11 4.53 ERA) looks to rebound from easily his worst start in two months against a starter-to-be determined. Phils manager Joe Girardi has yet to name a hurler for the middle game of the three-game set.

Lasting just 3.1 innings against the Cleveland Indians on Monday, La Piedra was torched for eight runs on seven hits, including two round-trippers. Unfortunately, gopher balls and Castilo are becoming reacquainted.

After surrendering just two homers in 11 previous starts, the right-hander has been taken deep five times in his last three trips to the mound. However, if you’re looking for a good omen, no current Phillies hitter has homered off La Piedra.

Sunday’s series finale will feature Sonny Gray (4-6 4.40 ERA) battling Aaron Nola (7-6 4.35 ERA) of the Phillies. This will be a rematch of a June 1st contest that saw Philadelphia wallop the Reds by a 17-3 count at Great American Ball Park.

Don’t let the final margin fool you. Sonny Gray pitched much better than the score would indicate.  Working 4.2 frames, the right-hander yielded three earned runs while fanning eight Phils. Unfortunately, the bullpen allowed 13 runs in 4.1 innings to close out the game. Ouch!

Aaron Nola hasn’t lost to the Redlegs since the 2017 campaign; however, he’s not exactly dominated Cincinnati. The right-hander has a 5.14 ERA in his last 29.2 frames versus the Reds and allowed four homers. Don’t be surprised to see the Redlegs trotting around the bases Sunday, as the 28-year-old Nola has yielded 19 home runs already this season.