Reds vs. Twins: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Twins pitching staff is struggling to record outs.

It’s no secret why manager Rocco Baldelli’s squad has been unable to capture the magic of the past two seasons. Twins’ hurlers are surrendering base hits and home runs at a dizzying rate. The Minnesota pitching staff is 14th in the American League in ERA at 4.94, have allowed the second most homers (104), and their mark of 5.31 runs yielded per contest are the most in the junior circuit.

Additionally, the Twins’ staff cannot put opposing hitters away. The club’s 574 punchouts are the third-fewest in the AL, and it’s probably not going to get better any time soon. Minnesota has three starters in their rotation 33 years or older, and each one has an ERA north of five.

While the offense hasn’t been great, it’s fared much better than the pitching staff. As a team, the Twins are slashing .242/.313/.428 and averaging 4.56 runs per contest. In addition, even though they don’t steal a ton of bases, they are opportunistic. The Twins have only been gunned down three times in 27 attempts.

If there’s one safe bet to place during this brief two-game set, the ball will fly out of Target Field.  Minnesota is second in the junior circuit with 101 round-trippers. Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, and Josh Donaldson have reached double figures in home runs on the season.

Centerfielder Byron Buxton is having a breakout campaign. The second overall pick of the 2012 draft by the Twins has posted a .365/.402/.750 slash line with a 1.152 OPS and a ridiculous 217 OPS+ mark. It appears his bat is finally catching up with his Gold Glove-caliber defense.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Twins.

Tyler Mahle (7-2 3.39 ERA) kicks off the series in the Twin Cities tonight as Minnesota counters with J.A. Happ (3-3 6.12 ERA).  The Cincinnati right-hander is coming off a brilliant start against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Tossing six innings, Mahle allowed just three hits while recording a dozen strikeouts.  Over his last five starts, the California native has allowed two earned runs or less four times without surrendering more than five hits in any of those contests.

In two career starts at Target Field,  Mahle has allowed just two runs in 8.1 innings while punching out 11 Twins’ hitters.  If it’s good vibes you want, he was the starting pitcher last September 25th when the Redlegs punched their postseason ticket.

There’s no way to say it gently; 38-year-old J.A. Happ has been awful in his 15th big league season.  The veteran southpaw has allowed at least four earned runs in six of his last seven starts while being tagged for at least five runs in four contests over that span. So look for both Aristides Aquino and Tyler Stephenson in Monday night’s lineup card for David Bell.

Tuesday afternoon’s series finale will feature Wade Miley (6-4 2.88 ERA) battling Bailey Ober (0-0 3.71 ERA) of the Twins.  Miley’s last start was a typically strong performance from the Louisiana native.  Facing a potent San Diego Padres lineup, the southpaw held the Friars to two runs on four hits over seven strong innings.

Miley has not allowed more than two earned runs in a start since May 14th versus the Colorado Rockies.  In the last four weeks, he’s 2-0  with a 1.80 ERA  to go along with 22 strikeouts in 25 frames.  Ladies and gentlemen, Wade Miley, is on quite a roll.

Right-handed rookie Bailey Ober is still seeking his first career victory as he makes his fifth big league starts.  The 12th round selection by the Twins in the 2017 draft, shown impeccable control since arriving to The Show on May 18th.  Tossing 17 innings, the North Carolina native has recorded 21 strikeouts against just two free passes.

It’s been a difficult 365 days for Eugenio Suarez.

Over the last calendar year, infielder Eugenio Suarez is slashing an anemic .186/.277/.414 in 124 games. Covering 452 at-bats, Geno has whiffed an astounding 151 at-bats. It’s not fair to call it a slump; this is who Suarez is at this point. He’s a below-average hitter who will occasionally hit a home run.

To make matters worse, Eugenio Suarez is a below-average defender when playing third base, his best position.  Needless to say, we’ve seen how incredibly unsuited Geno is when asked to play shortstop this season.

I don’t envy manager David Bell. It’s easy to root for Geno. He’s always a source of positive energy, and his smile lights up a room. However, at some point, the results have to warrant the confidence. The Reds have reached the point where Suarez’s name in the lineup is negatively impacting the team.

Granted, with Mike Moustakas on the 60-day IL, Bell really doesn’t have a choice but to run Eugenio Suarez out there every day, but what happens when Moose returns? The numbers indicate Suarez is not a platoon player.

This year he’s slashing an embarrassing .130/.190/.241 versus left-handers. He’s been moved down to seventh in the lineup, and as long as Kyle Farmer continues to see playing time at short, there’s no reason Geno should hit any higher.

What has led Geno to this point? Is it the shoulder injury he suffered before the 2020 season in a swimming accident? Is it the 49-homer season in 2019 that has changed his approach at the plate? I don’t have the answer, but what I do know is the Reds have no chance of reaching their potential with an everyday infielder hitting .170 who fails to reach base and struggles defensively.

Prediction

It was a wild week, to say the least, in Reds Country. The euphoria of sweeping the Brewers in Milwaukee quickly gave way to the exasperation of being swept by the Padres in San Diego.

However, all is not lost. Look for the Redlegs to bounce back and take both games from the Twins and conclude their nine-game road trip with a 5-4 record. Let’s be honest, nine days ago, Reds Country would have gladly signed up for this outcome.