Reds vs. Cubs: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds return home feeling better about themselves.

It’s challenging to make the argument that a 2-4 road trip was a success, but the Cincinnati Reds (11-13) have seemingly regained their footing after taking two of three from the World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers in Tinsel Town. The series victory over the Dodgers was needed in the worst way.

Monday night’s extra-inning win in the City of Angels snapped an infuriating seven-game slide in which the Reds dropped games in nearly every conceivable fashion. This weekend presents an excellent opportunity for the Redlegs to post consecutive series triumphs.

The reason for all this optimism is the Chicago Cubs (11-14) are visiting the Queen City. Through the first month of the 2021 season, the Cubs have to be one of baseball’s biggest disappointments.

Languishing in the basement of the National League Central, the defending division champs have lost five of their last six. To be honest,  this isn’t the same team that captured the division crown during the 2020 season.

Several familiar faces have left the Windy City following a winter of discontent in Chicago. Slugger and Middletown, Ohio native (sorry, couldn’t resist) Kyle Schwarber was non-tendered by the Cubs in the offseason and replaced with former Dodgers’ outfielder Joc Peterson. It’s still a head-scratching decision considering Schwarber and Peterson are essentially the same player.

Also sent packing was veteran left-handed starter Jon Lester and backup catcher Victor Caritini. However, the trade of ace Yu Darvish to the San Diego Padres was by far the most surprising move of the Cubs’ offseason.

Darvish, who was bested in the Cy Young voting by former Reds’ pitcher Trevor Bauer, was a beast in his final season as a Cub. For whatever reason, Chicago general manager Jed Hoyer is running the team as if they are suddenly cash strapped, much to the delight of their division rivals.

Recent history between the two clubs has been kind to the North Siders. Since 2015 Cincinnati has captured the season series just once. Over the last decade, the teams have played to a near-draw.

Cincinnati is 88-89 versus the Cubs since 2011 while holding a 46-42 edge at Great American Ball Park. Let’s hope the Reds can tip the scale to their favor by the time the Cubbies leave town late Sunday afternoon.

Both the Cubs’ bats and arms have yet to wake from hibernation.

For a team that fields a lineup with names like Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and former MVP Kris Bryant, you don’t expect to be the worst hitting team in the league, but the bottom is where the Chicago Cubs find themselves.

Entering play yesterday, Chicago was hitting a league-worst .203 and were second from the cellar in both on-base percentage (.298) and hits (154). Amazingly, the Cubs have three starters hitting below the Mendoza line.

Second baseman David Bote and outfielders Ian Happ and Jason Heyward were hitting .189 or worse as play began Thursday. Only Kris Bryant is showing signs of his usual outstanding self. The third baseman is off to an excellent start slashing .300/.380/.613 with 16 RBIs and 13 extra-base hits, including six round-trippers.

Give the Cubs pitching staff credit; they’ve been willing participants to share in the ineptness to keep the offense company. Chicago hurlers have compiled a senior circuit worst 4.86 ERA and allowed 114 earned runs as play opened yesterday.

The North Siders starting rotation has been a dumpster fire to begin the 2021 campaign. Through the first month of the season, the starters occupy the bottom of the NL with an ugly 5.68 ERA and just 105 strikeouts.

If there’s been a bright spot for Chicago pitching, it comes from a couple of right-handers in manager David Ross’ bullpen. Craig Kimbrel and Dan Winkler have combined to surrender just one run over 17.2 innings while allowing only five base hits.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Cubs

Wade Miley (2-2 2.45 ERA) kicks off the weekend festivities opposing Jake Arrieta (3-2 2.57 ERA) of the Cubs. The Cincinnati left-hander has been sensational to start the 2021 season. Tossing 22 innings, the 34-year-old Cajun has allowed a mere 14 while fanning 16 opposing hitters. However, danger lurks from a familiar Cubs source.

Kris Bryant is slashing .429/.471/.714 with a homer in 14 at-bats against the Reds southpaw, but first baseman Anthony Rizzo has not shared his teammate’s luck. The left-handed Rizzo has just three hits in 28 plate appearances versus Miley.

Arrieta is off to a solid start in his second tour of duty with the Cubs, and he’s no stranger to success in the Queen City. The right-hander has allowed just 17 hits in his last five trips to GABP, covering 32.2 innings. I won’t ever mention his performance from April 21, 2016.

More from Blog Red Machine

• Reds vs. White Sox: Pitching preview, prediction, and more
• Reds: Reiver Sanmartin adds another twist to offseason roster construction
• Reds: Signing Tyler Mahle to a contract extension should be a top priority
• Reds: Reiver Sanmartin should get first major league start vs Pirates
• Reds should unquestionably bring Wade Miley back in 2022

April brought plenty of showers for Luis Castillo (1-2 6.29 ERA), and he’s in desperate need of a bouquet of flowers as May begins. Chicago will counter with Zach Davies (1-2 9.47 ERA) for Saturday afternoon’s tilt.

Just how bad was La Piedra in April? Unbelievably awful for a pitcher who is so much better than he’s shown thus far. Castillo’s 32 hits allowed are the second-most in the National League, while his five gopher balls are the seventh most.

Left-handed hitters are simply abusing La Piedra to open the season.  Slashing .362/.413/.586 Castillo will have to tread carefully around Rizzo and  Chicago outfielder Jason Heyward.

Don’t expect Zach Davies to shed any tears for Castillo. As bad as La Piedra’s been, Davies has been worse. The former Brewer and Padre has allowed an absolutely staggering 42 hitters reach base via a hit or base on balls in just 19 frames.

However, facing the Redlegs should provide little solace for the Chicago right-hander. In his last five games against Cincinnati, he’s produced a 6.85 ERA while allowing 38 base runners in 22.1 innings. Don’t be surprised to see the Reds’ fireworks operator lighting up the Southwest Ohio sky Saturday afternoon.

Cincinnati’s best pitcher to begin the 2021 season takes the mound in Sunday’s series finale. Tyler Mahle (1-1 1.75 ERA) has been nothing short of brilliant this year. Trevor Williams (2-2 4.44 ERA) has the unenviable task of squaring off against the Reds right-hander.

Through his first 25.2 innings, Mahle has yielded 14 hits and two homers while fanning an impressive 36 hitters. Expect to see several Chicago hitters making left turns toward their third-base dugout Sunday.

Mahle has whiffed 21 North Siders in his last 13.2 innings of work versus the Cubs. One Cubs player in particular whom Mahle enjoys embarrassing is Ian Happ. The Univesity of Cincinnati alum is hitless in a dozen at-bats with seven punchouts when facing the California native.

Left-handed Cincinnati hitters have worn Trevor Williams out over his career. The trio of Tucker Barnhart, Joey Votto, and Jesse Winker has collected 24 hits in 56 at-bats when facing the 29-year-old right-hander. Look for a left-handed heavy lineup card from David Bell on Sunday afternoon.