Not This Again…(Or the Reds Could Strikeout A Lot)

It was going to be said (or in this case, tweeted) sooner or later. I can’t remember exactly who tweeted this but…

It came after the Ryan Ludwick deal became public. What do I my eyes see but a tweet in reference to (gulp!) strikeouts. Yes, that compound word has almost become a vulgar term around Cincinnati these days. There is a reason for it though. The sight is a little scary…

So, I took the tweet as a task (which wasn’t too difficult, mind you), and embarked on a bit of a “trip”.

So, with the addition of Ludwick to the outfield mix, you have this.

The scary part? Bear with me a little on this.

Within any game, you know three of these four will be occupying an starting position. You could estimate that of those three, they may see 12 plate appearances during that game. (Just a guess, not exact.) In referencing the above chart, opposing pitchers are most likely to record three strikeouts (12 PA * 25%). You hear frequently about unproductive outs (sometimes maybe a little too much), but knowing you are going into a game with three whiffs means you are giving an entire inning considering the realm of 27 outs per game.

Here’s a little more…

Take Jay Bruce. As I’ve stated before, when I “delivered” my season ending grades, I was a bit harsh on Bruce. But here’s a positive spin. Let’s compare his major league numbers to what he did in the minors…

I recognize that what a player does in the minors is no guarantee on what his production will be once he hit the bigs; however…

Of the three Reds “farmhands” listed in the above chart, Bruce is the only one that has improved upon these rates. His walk rate has increased, but so has his strikeout rate. Good news is that Bruce has increased his rate walk by more than a full percentage point versus the half a point increase in his strikeout rate. Last season was Bruce’s highest SO% since his rookie season (24.3%).

Again, a silver lining with Jay. His 23.8% last season was only a 0.1% increase over 2010 (23.7%), so there might not be as great a concern with Bruce as there might be with others. Maintaining is half the battle, isn’t it?

Here’s what could be scary to opposing teams. I honestly don’t believe we’ve witnessed Jay Bruce, the hitter. During his days in the minors, Bruce hit for a .308 clip. Now, I will be the first to admit that adding the power element to his game could be a reason for the drain on his batting average but the .281 he posted in 2010 is, I feel, no fluke. He can do it again. Reduce his strikeouts by only that 1.2% difference in 2011 to his average from his days in the minors and you should see a rise in the batting average.

What’s not so good is the “news” in regards to Heisey and Stubbs. The subject of Stubbs and the K have been a path trekked so many times, I know. Here’s two things people forget…and something I tend to forget as well.

One, Stubbs has always posted a somewhat high strikeout rate. For his career in the minors, it was 23.4%. Now, we saw that rise dramatically (or so it seemed) to 30.1% last season and it sparked considerable debate among Reds fans. For 2010, his SO% was 28.8%. What may have added to the fanbase’s fury was that Stubbs was utilized for so much of 2011 in the leadoff capacity.

Two, Stubbs is not a high average guy. For his minor league career, he hit .269. Where we tend to get miffed is that Stubb posted a minor league career OBP of .364. That’s 39 points higher than his MLB average of .325. With his speed and pop, we expected him to naturally flow into the leadoff spot.

How’s it go? One more hit a week. With the news that Stubbs will be working on his bunting skills, there could be a light that triggers in his brain. He doesn’t have to bunt every game. As we’ve heard countless times on Reds telecasts, just do every so often. Put the thought in the defense’s mind. That will lead to the opening of other holes.

For Heisey, it’s kind of a weird thing in that Heisey has never held the opportunity to play on an everyday basis. To some, that’s why his SO% is so high and his BB% is drastically lower than Bruce or Stubbs. This could be a case where the numbers don’t fit. This was the subject of debate (on Twitter, of course) during last season.

I was actually the brunt of it. I was seeing the numbers and sticking to them. Heisey just strikes out too much. I saw a tweet saying that if Heisey had more playing time, he could lower that. More playing time meant less rust was the argument. As time wore on, it made more and more sense. I was almost being swayed…

So I took a look first at Heisey’s 2011 splits. That told me that Heisey performs far better than a sub (or pinch hitter) than a starter. As a starter (235 PA), the slash was .237/.303/.483 with 14 HR and 34 RBI. In the “other roles” (73 PA), .309/.329/.500 with 4 HR and 16 RBI. Well, that seemed to show that I was correct in my initial thought. Could the pressure of being a starter create that vast a difference?

I decided to check the game logs. I knew this would be a small sample, but I went forward with it. In the Reds last 18 games, Heisey started 12 and played in 4 others. In those 16 games, Heisey made 56 plate appearances. He struck out 14 times (25.0%) and walked 4 (7.1%). The SO% is slightly lower while the BB% rate is slightly higher in comparison to his MLB rates. The SO/BB ratio is an unimpressive 0.29, but it is still a tad better than his norm.

The plus is that during this same stretch, he posted a slash of .308/.357/.654 with 5 HR and 9 RBI.

What is all boils down to is this. Giving away an inning will severely curtail your efforts. A means must be discovered where these guys are making more contact no matter who the starting three are. This might be something to be placed on Brook Jacoby’s plate. Well, it better be on his plate.

We heard last season that the Reds offense was still potent. In looking at the bottom lines numbers, that is correct. The point cannot be argued. It’s what you do in a certain situation that can win or lose a game. Can you move a guy from second to third? Can you hit that sacrifice fly?

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