2 Reds prospects who are locks for Rule 5 protection, 1 who could be left exposed

The Cincinnati Reds’ first 40-man roster move of the offseason is a clear reminder of the decisions looming for the front office. Aside from whether or not to exercise the options for Austin Hays, Brent Suter, and Scott Barlow, the Reds need to consider which of their prospects deserve protection in the Rule 5 Draft.

The current crop of talent is close enough to the big leagues to merit serious consideration from other clubs, so the Reds will need to carefully consider their selections. The Reds’ roster currently stands at 39 players, limiting the amount of protection the club can issue without making corresponding moves.

2 Reds prospects who are locks for Rule 5 protection

Héctor Rodríguez, Reds outfielder

Outfielder Héctor Rodríguez is more than worthy of a spot on the roster and is perhaps the most likely candidate to be poached by another team. Rodríguez climbed to Triple-A Louisville and had some growing pains, but his low strikeout rate (15% between Double-A and Triple-A) and his power-speed combo may be enough to entice other clubs to nab him.

Rodríguez would at least be a change of pace for the Reds, who have leaned on Blake Dunn and Rece Hinds for outfield support over the past two years. That pair has combined for just 88 MLB games in the past two seasons while occupying two of the 40 roster spots. Their performance with the Reds should call into question this strategy and indicate that Rodríguez could be the shake-up that the roster needs.

Edwin Arroyo, Reds shortstop

The best Reds prospect who'll be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft is the one the Reds need to worry about the least. Shortstop Edwin Arroyo is still considered a gem of the farm system, but his lost 2024 season and reduced power should be enough to ward off other teams.

Arroyo began to turn a corner during the second-half of the 2025 season and will likely begin his 2026 campaign at Triple-A Louisville. Arroyo is a lock to be added to the Reds 40-man roster later this month.

1 Reds prospect who could be left exposed for the Rule 5 Draft

Kevin Abel, Reds pitcher

Pitchers tend to be hot commodities in the Rule 5 Draft, but most of the Reds’ top arms have already made it to the 40-man roster. Still, if Cincinnati wants to hang onto a pitcher, right-hander Kevin Abel could be a good choice.

The Oregon State alum is getting extra work in the Arizona Fall League. If he displays better command this fall, he could be an interesting target for other teams. If nothing else, his 124 ⅔ innings pitched in the minors this year plus his AFL work could indicate that he can handle a steady workload.