Twins' next offseason move could trigger the perfect Reds trade scenario

The Minnesota Twins are coming off a down-year in 2025, and many experts and pundits expect similar results to follow in 2026. The Twins were sellers at the July 31 trade deadline last summer, and decided to move on from the likes of Carlos Correa, Ty France, Harrison Bader, and others.

While Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey hasn't expressed the need to purge the roster further, it's quite likely that Minnesota will start selling off even more assets this winter. Starting pitchers Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez could be the next dominos to fall, and if that happens, Byron Buxton may soon follow them out the door.

Buxton, however, has a full no-trade clause giving him the ability to void any potential deal that may come about this offseason. But Dan Hayes of The Athletic (subscription required) is reporting that Buxton may be willing to waive that right if the Twins' teardown continues. Should that happen, the Cincinnati Reds should be first in line to discuss a possible trade for Buxton this offseason.

If Twins outfielder Byron Buxton waives his no-trade clause, the Reds should pounce on the opportunity

Buxton is a two-time All-Star and former Platinum Glove Award-winner. The 31-year-old has a career .248/.308/.487 slash line and put up even better numbers last season. In 2025, Buxton hit .264/.327/.551 with 35 home runs and 136 OPS+.

The biggest issue with Buxton, however, is his durability. Since 2021, he's appeared in just 466 of a possible 810 games. Being available for less than 60% of your team's games is tough sell, but when Buxton is on the field he's a true difference maker.

The veteran's contract is very doable for the Reds. Buxton signed a seven-year, $100 million deal back in 2021 that pays him a little more than $15 million over the next three seasons. While Cincinnati has limited a limited payroll this offseason, adding an All-Star caliber player at that number is something Nick Krall and the Reds' front office would have to investigate.

The Twins would undoubtedly be seeking young, controllable assets — something the Reds have plenty of. Buxton's injury history likely hinders his overall trade value, but Minnesota would still be able to target some of Cincinnati's top prospects if the two clubs began discussions about a possible trade.

The Reds were involved in trade talks for another injury-prone outfielder last offseason. The Reds and Chicago White Sox had multiple discussions about a trade involving Luis Robert Jr., but nothing ever materialized. If Cincy was willing to take on that type of injury risk last winter, there's no reason to think they wouldn't do the same this year if Buxton became available.

The Reds would be foolish to pass up a chance to trade for Buxton if the opportunity arises. If Minnesota continues to remake their roster this winter, that window could open and Cincinnati must pounce.