Tony Santillan is rolling right now for the Reds (but it could all unravel)

Is Cincinnati Reds reliever is Tony Santillan the real deal? Santillan is 1-3 in 56 appearances this season with a 2.58 ERA and 23.9% strikeout rate, but some of the underlying metrics suggest that the jury may still be out on the 28-year-old right-hander despite his breakout campaign in 2025.

Santillan's blazing fastball, paired with his strong conventional numbers, tells Reds fans that he's arguably one of the better relievers in baseball. But as you dig a little deeper into Santillan's numbers, perhaps the right-hander has been more lucky than good.

There's no denying that Santillan is riding a tremendous wave of success this season. Heading into Tuesday's game against the Chicago Cubs, he hasn't given up a run since July 11, spanning 10 outings and 9⅓ innings with 15 strikeouts. Santillan's impressive stretch has Reds fans forgetting about the front office failing to trade for a veteran reliever before the MLB trade deadline — and rightfully so. Santillan has been nails for the Reds this season.

Reds' reliever Tony Santillan needs to keep proving himself before fans are convinced the success is sustainable

But Santillan's 3.60 FIP more than one run higher than his ERA. That typically indicates that a pitcher should probably be giving up more runs than he actually has. Fortune has favored Santillan this season.

On top of that, Santillan has been among the worst in the game in hard-hit rate and ground ball rate. However, considering Santillan relies on his fastball over 65% of the time, those numbers shouldn't come as a shock. Opposing hitters are seeking the heater, and when they do, they are trying to launch the ball high and deep. This predictability all translates to more hard-hit fly balls.

Beyond the numbers, Santillan's injury history has to be taken into account. Santillan missed a considerable amount of time earlier in his career with back issues, but thankfully has remained healthy throughout the entire season. But he's sitting on 52⅔ innings pitched; a career-high in the big leagues and the most he's thrown since 2019 when Santillan was a starter in the minors.

Since the MLB All-Star break, Santillan has put zeroes up on the board. As the season shifts into the dog days of August, Reds fans are hoping that Santillan is able to keep up the pace with what's already been a fantastic season.

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