This Reds' breakout prospect could be too important to ignore this offseason

The first round of the 2021 MLB Draft is becoming one to forget for the Cincinnati Reds. Their initial selection in that draft (No. 17 overall), Matt McLain, has faded hard since a breakout rookie season. And their second pick in that opening round (No. 30), Jay Allen II, still just recently climbed above Double-A in what is now his sixth pro season.

But while McLain plays out the second half of this season on non-tender watch, Allen is suddenly reviving some dormant hype. Still just 23 years old, the outfielder is hitting .281/.374/.486 (121 wRC+) with a career-high 15 home runs and 17 steals in just 89 games this season. Yes, he was repeating the Double-A level after struggling there last year, but this is easily the best he's ever looked at the plate outside of some short stints in the Complex League.

He hasn't been considered a rising star since 2023, when MLB Pipeline ranked him as the 13th-best prospect in the system, but it's suddenly not egregious to claim that Allen is deserving of 40-man roster protection this offseason.

Jay Allen II has earned a promotion and Rule 5 protection from Reds' front office

Allen was already eligible for the Rule 5 draft last offseason, though there was never much fear that the Reds would lose him after he produced a .651 OPS at Double-A. However, his 2026 breakout makes him a far more intriguing candidate to other teams this time around, giving the front office every incentive to add him to their roster over the winter.

The things he does best haven't changed; he's an above-average defender in the outfield, having played nearly 400 innings in center field in Chattanooga while making just one error. A lot of that prowess is owed to his above-average speed, which has yielded 146 steals throughout his pro career.

The real improvements he's made have come at the plate. He's still making too many poor swing decisions, but he's improved his in-zone contact rate tremendously (87.06% in 2026), which has helped him cut his strikeout rate by more than three percentage points from last year. Allen's natural raw power has never been in question, but a suspect hit tool has kept him from fully unlocking it. Now, he's being selective enough to hit home runs without sacrificing any on-base skills.

With a late-season promotion to Triple-A now in the rearview mirror, he's firmly on the Rule 5 radar. There's always a chance the draft never happens due to the impending lockout -- it was canceled in 2021 for the same reason -- but that's not really a risk the Reds can afford to take. As odd as it is to say, there's a chance Allen, and not McLain, could be the 2021 first-round pick we all think of when this era of Cincinnati baseball is over.

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