Terry Francona might have ended Reds rotation suspense early

The Cincinnati Reds stand to have one of the top starting rotations in the game. When healthy, Hunter Greene can go toe-to-toe with any other ace around the league. Two through four are incredibly solid, with Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, and Brady Singer representing talented hurlers in each spot. The real intrigue comes with the fifth starter spot.

Cincinnati could fill out a whole other rotation with the arms competing for the final rotation spot. You've got the injury returnees, Brandon Williamson and Julian Aguiar, alongside top youngsters Chase Burns, Rhett Lowder, and Chase Petty. Five hurlers for just one spot should make this a fierce, down-to-the-wire contest.

At least, that's what one might think. But some recent comments from Terry Francona might hint that the decision is nearly buttoned up, and all signs point to Chase Burns emerging as the victor.

It sure sounds like Terry Francona is leaning towards Chase Burns as the Reds' fifth starter

Per Charlie Goldsmith, Francona had the following to say about the fifth starter competition and Burns in particular. "He looks like he belongs. It's a cool progression. With an arm like that, it happens fast."

Fast would be an understatement. Pitchers and catchers reported to Goodyear on February 9, and Francona is speaking about Burns as if he's already arrived. In a way, he already has.

The 23-year-old got his feet wet last season with 13 appearances (8 starts) and 43⅓ Major League innings in what was his first and only pro season to date. On the surface, his 4.57 ERA was not much to write home about, but that's a long way from telling the whole story.

Armed with a heater that came in at 98.6 miles per hour on average to go along with a devastating slider and a decent changeup, Burns struck out an eye-popping 35.6% of batters, while posting a roughly league-average walk rate of 8.5%. His xERA was a much more encouraging 3.46, and his FIP was a stellar 2.65.

What inflated his ERA to such a mediocre number was likely bad luck in a relatively small sample, with Burns posting a lower-than-average 64% left on-base rate (league average is roughly 70-75%). A little regression to the mean, and those expected numbers start becoming the reality.

As steep as the competition looks, Burns should be the runaway favorite. Lowder impressed during his own brief big league stint in 2024 and will eventually make an impact, but after missing almost all of 2025 due to injury, some time in Louisville would do him well. Both Williamson and Aguiar are also coming back from injuries and shouldn't be rushed. Meanwhile, Petty has a lot to sort out, and might be best served as a reliever for now and maybe forever.

That leaves Burns standing alone. Francona might see it all clicking or him now, but there's an argument to be made that it already clicked; we just didn't notice it. It might not be long before we aren't looking at him as a fifth starter anymore, either, but as another ace. One step at a time, but if he turns heads this spring, watch out.