Terry Francona has what it takes to escape the Reds' first-year manager curse

Terry Francona will soon face the tall task of transforming the Cincinnati Reds from fourth-place finishers into contenders. He’s stood up to the challenge before as he propelled Cleveland from a 94-loss season to a postseason appearance in his first year at the helm. Cincinnati may be a different story, though, as the weight of Reds history fights against Francona.

Most managerial changeover in Cincinnati is in response to poor performance rather than managers climbing the MLB ladder. Thus, the new skipper inherits an unsuccessful squad and has very little time to turn the ship. As a result, a first-year manager hasn’t had a winning record with the Reds in 30 years.

Terry Francona hopes to break the trend of bad luck for first-year Reds managers

The last time the Reds logged a winning record under a first-year manager was during the strike-shortened season of 1994. Davey Johnson, who had actually stepped in as interim manager in 1993, marched the team to a 66-48-1 record before the season was called off in August. (For what it's worth, Ray Knight guided the 1996 team to an even 81-81 record, but .500 isn't a winning record in our books.)

The last time a first-year manager took the Reds to the postseason was in 1990 when Lou Piniella led the team all the way to a World Series championship. Despite playing .500 ball over the season’s final 100 games, the 1990 Reds rode a red-hot start to dominance in the NL West. 

If Francona wants to recreate Johnson and Piniella’s turnaround seasons, he’ll have to rely on the front office. Johnson, for example, benefited from the Reds acquiring Bret Boone via trade prior to the 1994 season. The second baseman excelled in his first full season in the bigs and formed an imposing middle infield alongside Barry Larkin for five years. In 1990, the Reds landed reliever Randy Myers, and Lou Piniella built an imposing bullpen with returning Reds Rob Dibble and Norm Charlton. This trio allowed just six hits in 8 ⅔ scoreless innings in the World Series.

Francona has, in fact, benefited from this model of team-building before. When Francona joined Cleveland, general manager Chris Antonetti scoured the free-agent market, signing Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn, and Ryan Raburn. He also traded for Yan Gomes. This quartet flourished under Francona’s leadership and combined for 12.6 WAR despite Gomes and Raburn working in platoon roles.

Now’s the time for the Reds’ front office to back the new manager. If Francona’s first season in Cincinnati is a bust, the good will inspired by the skipper’s signing will all be for naught.

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