The Cincinnati Reds are preparing for a David versus Goliath-type matchup to kick off the Wild Card round of the 2025 MLB playoffs. The upstart Reds will have a tall order ahead of them as they look to take down the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers. The key to the series could lie in how Terry Francona chooses to write out his Game 1 lineup card.
Standing in their way will be Blake Snell, a two-time Cy Young Winner and ERA champ and bona fide fire-breathing ace. Snell missed significant time due to left shoulder inflammation, which limited the southpaw to just 11 starts, but boy, were those starts effective.
Snell posted a 2.35 ERA, 2.70 FIP, 28.3% strikeout rate, and 1.9 fWAR in just 61⅓ innings. Extrapolated over a full season of work, that performance would have put him in the conversation for Cy Young honors most years. As a result, Terry Francona will have some hard choices to make to give Cincinnati the best possible chance to pull off a victory in the opener and set the scene for a massive upset.
Terry Francona needs to seriously consider these lineup moves for the Reds to have success against Blake Snell
The Reds were criticized for having a quiet trade deadline, but one of their most under-the-radar acquisitions (at the time), Miguel Andujar, has proven invaluable down the stretch. That's why he should get the start over the lefty-swinging Gavin Lux at DH.
Lux might be chomping at the bit to get revenge on his former team, but the former Dodger has slashed just .179/.270/.196 with a 30.2% K-rate against left-handers this season. Andujar, on the other hand, has mashed lefties to the tune of a .389/.409/.578 line, making this swap a no-brainer.
Runs will be at a premium against Snell, so the next change that Francona will need to strongly consider is swapping defensive excellence for offensive upside, and start Sal Stewart at the hot corner over defensive whiz Ke'Bryan Hayes.
Stewart's glove might play better at first, but this change also allows Spencer Steer to stay in the lineup, giving them significantly more punch. For as much wizardry Hayes can pull off at third, his already questionable offensive performance becomes an untenable .513 OPS against lefties. By starting Stewart, the Reds can capitalize on his power, while still having Hayes available as a defensive replacement should things get tight in the late innings.
The last is to ensure Austin Hays is roaming left field, as long as his balky back allows it. Hays excels against southpaws, drawing walks at a 11.4% rate while flexing some serious power with a .231 ISO. Both will be needed as Cincinnati will need to try to take advantage of Snell's occasional wildness (10.2% BB-rate in 2025) while also having the chance to break the game open with one swing.
Hays' .949 OPS against lefties in 2025 would look real nice in the lineup and would help mask the fact that fellow corner outfielder Noelvi Marte struggles to hit lefties despite having the platoon advantage.
Should Francona follow this outline, the Reds will be able to present Snell with a formidable lineup and, with a mistake or two from Los Angeles's ace, be able to take a lead into the later innings, which have become a problem area for the Dodgers. Doing so might just steal away the opener and set the tone for the series.
