Terry Francona’s cautious tone leaves Hunter Greene return hopes in limbo

Cincinnati Reds fans have been eagerly awaiting the return of Hunter Greene since he hit the IL in early-June. Nick Lodolo’s injury only poured fuel on the fire. Unfortunately, manager Terry Francona doused the flames with a cautious comment about the Reds’ ace, noting that Greene’s full health comes first. It sounds like the Reds will be slow-rolling Greene’s return which could have major implications for the end of the season.

Considering Greene is now on his second IL stint with the same groin strain, the caution seems merited. His first attempt at a return resulted in three middling outings during which his strike rate fell from 71% to 68% and his opponents’ expected batting average rose from .185 to .277.

Since then, he has had setbacks and delays in his rehab process, and his next start — scheduled for August 8 at Triple-A Louisville — will be his first 80-pitch outing since he landed back on the IL.

The Reds are balancing Hunter Greene’s recovery with the push for the postseason

Even with the logic of a slow recovery from a recurrent and lingering issue, the Reds need Greene back ASAP. They’ve had to lean on bullpen games twice in the past few weeks, and the road doesn’t get easier from here. A fully healthy Greene could be the difference between staying in the Wild Card race and fading down the stretch. A rushed and still recovering Greene could doom the Reds entirely.

If there is a silver lining to the timing of Francona’s statement and Lodolo’s injury, it’s that Chase Burns’ rotation spot may be safe for a while longer. Greene’s return could allow Nick Martinez to slide back into the bullpen (as was the plan with the Zack Littell trade) with Burns sticking as a starter.

Although the rookie is still looking for his first big-league win, Burns has improved significantly in the second half of the season. Opponents had a 1.183 OPS against him in June and a .670 OPS in July.

If Greene returns to full health and effectiveness, the Reds could justify their slow approach to his rehab. Imagine a Cincinnati rotation that features Greene, Littell, Burns, Brady Singer, and Andrew Abbott as the Reds face each of the current division leaders (Philadelphia Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers, and Los Angeles Dodgers) between now and the end of the month. A true ace could change each of those series, and those series could determine the entire season.

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