Terry Francona’s 2,000th win opens door to chase Reds royalty

The Reds were so focused on keeping pace in the NL Wild Card race that manager Terry Francona apparently lost sight of his own milestone. Regardless, the skipper became the 13th manager to win 2,000 games as Cincinnati rolled into the All-Star break. Now that he has joined the elite club, Francona has a chance to surpass Reds royalty.

Francona will certainly climb up the list, likely passing Hall of Famers Leo Durocher (2,008 wins) and Walter Alston (2,040). In the long term, though, Tito has an opportunity to surpass Big Red Machine manager Sparky Anderson, who won 2,194 games over 26 seasons. To do so, Francona needs the Reds to fulfill their potential.

To pass Reds legend Sparky Anderson on the all-time wins list, Terry Francona needs the Reds to step up.

The Reds are already underperforming in Francona’s first year. Their Pythagorean win-loss record is 52-45 while their actual record stands at 50-47. (Frustratingly, they have a better Pythagorean win-loss than the three teams ahead of them in the Wild Card race.) They are particularly bad against the best teams; the Reds are 20-27 against teams above .500.

If the Reds continue to play about .500 baseball, as they have all season, they can expect to win approximately 32 more games this year. That would mean that Francona needs 163 more wins to pass Anderson. Since Tito is under contract through 2027 with a club option for 2028, it seems inevitable that he will pass the Reds legend while wearing a Cincinnati uniform.

It’s possible, though, that Francona could climb even higher while managing the Reds. The team’s draft picks seem to point to a long-term strategy for success, which could indicate that the future Hall of Famer will be around beyond his original contract. So let’s play prognosticator.

If Francona performs as well as he has over his career (.538 win percentage), he could wrap up 2028 with 2,296 wins, just outside the top five. This, of course, is a bit of a reach given the Reds’ struggles this year, but 2,250 at least seems achievable. If Francona makes it through the 2030 season, when he will be 70 years old, he could pass Joe Torre at 2,326. Even if Francona were to never manage another game, he’d still be a sure-fire Hall of Famer, and the Reds would have the honor of being the team that got him to 2,000.