Surprising Reds' Comeback Player of the Year prediction will have fans baffled

It's getting to be the time of year where end-of-season awards debates are in full swing, and one MLB insider has a surprising Cincinnati Reds player in the mix for the NL Comeback Player of the Year Award.

In his column for The Athletic (subscription required) former MLB general manager Jim Bowden named Miami Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara as his NL Comeback Player of the Year, with Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. as the runner-up, and Reds second baseman Matt McLain as his third-place finisher.

In defense of his selection of McLain, Bowden wrote, "McLain also has not been able to return to his pre-injury form from the left shoulder surgery...However, he’s still hit 14 home runs and played close to an average second base while appearing in 135 games." To say that McLain hasn't been able to return to his pre-injury form is an understatement, Jim.

Reds Comeback Player of the Year prediction, Matt McLain, looks especially foolish in light of many better alternatives on the roster

The main logic that Bowden used to come to his conclusion comes down to the fact that the 26-year-old came back from a nasty shoulder injury, which required surgery and cost him the entire 2024 campaign. While it's commendable that McLain was able to fight back from the injury and stay healthy for most of his delayed sophomore season, his performance doesn't make it look like much of a comeback.

Through September 16, McLain is hitting just .223/.304/.347. That performance has been worth a wRC+ of 80, which is 20% worse than league-average and 48% worse than the 128 wRC+ he posted in his powerful rookie season.

If a Reds player needed to factor into the award, why not Noelvi Marte or Nick Lodolo? What Marte is coming back from isn't an injury, but rather an 80-game PED suspension that cost him a good chunk of his 2024 campaign. While that might discount him in Bowden's mind, that's some serious adversity for a young player like the 23-year-old to come back from.

Still, the versatile youngster had to overcome injuries this season, but his .272/.313/.473 line has produced a 111 wRC+, best amongst Reds hitters who have logged a minimum of 300 plate appearances as the team has struggled to find consistent offensive production.

If the candidate must be coming back from an injury, then Nick Lodolo stands out as the obvious choice. The lanky lefty has succumbed to numerous injuries throughout his career, including two separate IL stints in 2024 due to a blister and, later, a sprained left middle finger that prematurely ended his season.

After being limited to just 21 starts last year, the 27-year-old southpaw has now made a career-high 26 starts while posting a near-ace-like 3.30 ERA, which is also a career-best.

Bowden seems to only consider players coming back from devastating injuries; however, the qualifications for the award should be broader. For example, if you take a pitcher like Lodolo and look at his career in totality, it seemed that he was on a trajectory where his career would flame out due to repeated injuries. Instead, he's overcome all those odds and put together the type of season the Reds have long been waiting for.

McLain should be commended for fighting back and staying healthy in the wake of a tough injury, but actually producing on the field has to count for something when deciding who truly deserves to be honored with this award. When looking at the Reds, there are far better choices.

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