Surprise contract decision suddenly shakes up winter plans for Reds' rival

When the offseason began, the Chicago Cubs looked like a team gearing up for a very different kind of winter — one built around keeping their books clean, shuffling money into new areas, and hunting for upgrades at a few carefully chosen weak spots on the roster.

That’s why Shota Imanaga’s surprising decision to accept the qualifying offer hit like a thunderclap across the division, instantly reshaping a plan that had been drawn up with his departure all but penciled in.

For months, the expectation around the league was that the left-hander would decline the one-year deal and hit the open market for a much larger payday after a stellar 2025 campaign. Instead, the Cubs suddenly have nearly $21 million committed to a pitcher they didn’t expect to carry on the books. Whether they admit it publicly or not, this reshapes their winter blueprint.

Cubs didn’t see this coming from Shota Imanaga, and the Reds might benefit

And that unexpected turn matters for the Cincinnati Reds. The Cubs were already a team positioned to be aggressive — multiple reports over the past week suggested they were prepared to chase rotation help, bullpen pieces, and a bat to reshape the middle of their order.

By all accounts, their front office had built its offseason plan around Imanaga walking away. With that assumption off the table, Chicago’s balance sheet looks very different today. That doesn’t necessarily take them out of free agency, but it does make their path more complicated at a moment when the Reds are trying to gain ground in the division.

From a competitive standpoint, the Cubs bringing back Imanaga for another season is a mixed bag for Cincinnati. On one hand, the Reds will now have to deal with a frontline-caliber arm they thought might be headed elsewhere. On the other, Chicago’s margin for winter upgrades just got thinner.

That’s especially notable because Chicago had been directly connected to several high-impact arms — names the Reds themselves have kept tabs on. The Cubs were rumored to be circling pitchers like Michael King and Dylan Cease, the kind of additions that could’ve swung the division balance if Chicago landed them early. Imanaga accepting the QO doesn’t eliminate that possibility, but it does force the Cubs to be more selective. Instead of attacking the market with a wide net, they may focus on one splash rather than several meaningful additions.

There’s also the sequencing factor. Teams that get surprised by a major financial shift often need time to recalibrate. That opens a small window for Cincinnati to move with more intention. Whether the Reds want to address their bullpen needs, explore the trade market, or push harder for starting pitching depth, the Cubs being momentarily off balance offers a chance for Cincinnati to control the pace.

In the end, Imanaga’s return is a boost for Chicago’s rotation but a curveball for their front office. The Cubs can still spend, but their offseason now requires sharper navigation and more disciplined resource allocation than they planned for.

For the Reds, this unexpected development won’t hand them the division—but it does slightly ease the runway for their own winter moves. And in a race where every competitive edge counts, even a twist like this one can tilt the landscape just enough to matter by the time spring rolls around.