Sal Stewart should win Rookie of the Year but 2006 offers stark warning to Reds fans

The arguments for Cincinnati Reds phenom Sal Stewart to win the NL Rookie of the Year are beginning to stack up. The young slugger has been a fearsome presence at the plate, and his .806 OPS is over 80 points higher than his top competition, JJ Wetherholt, who checks in with a .724 mark.

If you don't like that argument, perhaps you'd prefer a more old-school appeal. Stewart is the first player in MLB to reach the 100 RBI threshold this season. Notice that says player, not rookie. He's the first rookie to have that distinction since Pete Alonso in 2019.

Some have tried to discredit Stewart's offensive edge by highlighting the defensive and positional value that Wetherholt brings. And it's true, Wetherholt is a fantastic defensive second baseman, but as the legendary Joey Votto points out, first base has more value than meets the eye, which should narrow the gap between these two NL Central youngsters on the defensive side of things to an extent.

The defense and positional value argument manifests itself in WAR calculations. By fWAR, Wetherholt comes in with a 4.5 mark, while Stewart has posted 2.3. However, some have begun to question if WAR is even fair to first basemen, and some great seasons by elite first basemen are enough to raise some eyebrows when you see how WAR values them.

It's a similar sentiment that several MLB Network analysts have shared as they make the case for Stewart being the front-runner for the award. It's been an uphill battle to get to this point, but here we are and it's starting to look like Stewart taking home the award is inevitable, especially with news of Wetherholt hitting the IL (wrist) on Sunday.

With that said, let's not count our chickens before they hatch. There have been rookie sluggers who have been beaten out by speedy middle infielders for the hardware before, with the 2006 NL Rookie of the Year race standing out as a true cautionary tale.

Ryan Zimmerman getting upset by Hanley Ramirez in the 2006 NL Rookie of the Year race is a warning for Reds' Sal Stewart

Twenty years ago, Washington Nationals third baseman played the role of Sal Stewart, slashing .287/.351/.471 with 20 homers and 110 RBI. He was on more ballots than his chief competition, Florida Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez, but Ramirez got more first-place votes.

Ramirez certainly had a good year, too, batting .292/.353/.480 with 17 homers, 59 RBI, and 51 steals. Now, one could argue that Ramirez's offensive campaign was light-years better than what Wetherholt, who is hitting .245/.348/.376 with 17 homers, 48 RBI, and 14 steals, but the point is the same regarding positional and defensive value.

The good news is that Stewart has already reached milestones that Zimmerman didn't, making his case even harder to ignore. Stewart is hitting .266/.338/.489 with 31 homers. Now that he's reached 30-plus homers with over 100 RBI, it's going to be very hard to deny.

Nothing is a guarantee, as 2006 shows us, but Stewart is the favorite. As long as he avoids injury or a massive slump, the young, affable Reds cornerstone will be adding a trophy to his trophy case this offseason.

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