Sal Stewart's September slump created Rookie of the Year debate the Reds didn't need

By all accounts, Sal Stewart had an excellent rookie season. In a vacuum, his .263/.330/.457 slash line, 112 wRC+, 32 homers, and 111 RBI are impressive numbers for someone getting their first taste of the big leagues. In the context of the Cincinnati Reds' vacuous offense, that performance was downright extraordinary.

One would expect that kind of Herculean effort to be rewarded in some way, most likely with the NL Rookie of the Year trophy. Stewart's certainly been in contention for that award all season long, even emerging as the presumptive favorite after winning NL Rookie of the Month honors in August (his second time doing so this season).

Unfortunately, a September slump kept the door ajar for other National League freshman, some of whom did their best to make the race a genuine competition again. And, if Stewart winds up missing out, it will hurt the Reds' bottom line as well.

Sal Stewart's struggles could cost him Rookie of the Year honors, and the Reds could lose draft pick too

The only four players with any sort of odds to win this award are Stewart (the favorite), Carson Benge, JJ Wetherholt, and Nolan McLean. We'll break down their candidacies by full-season efforts and then explore how they did specifically during the final month.

NL Rookie of the Year favorites:
Sal Stewart: .263/.330/.457, 112 wRC+, 32 HRs, 111 RBIs, 15 SBs, 2.0 fWAR
Carson Benge: .282/.346/.430, 118 wRC+, 20 HRs, 65 RBIs, 22 SBs, 4.3 fWAR
JJ Wetherholt: .242/.339/.365, 101 wRC+, 17 HRs, 51 RBIs, 14 SBs, 4.6 fWAR
Nolan McLean: 179⅔ IP, 3.16 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 26% strikeout rate, 3.5 fWAR

In terms of the traditional counting stats, Stewart clearly has the advantage. He has big power and those run-production numbers will be hard for the others to overcome, even if the brilliant defense of Benge and Wetherholt (and the huge workload handled by McLean) create a massive gap in WAR. Then again, Stewart's iron-man heroics — he became the eighth rookie ever to play in all 162 games — should also matter if we're talking about workload.

Now, let's take a look at these players' respective performances in September.

NL Rookie of the Year favorites:
Sal Stewart: .247/.287/.280, 56 wRC+, 1 HR, 6 RBIs, 3 SBs, -0.5 fWAR
Carson Benge: .313/.394/.479, 147 wRC+, 4 HRs, 11 RBIs, 3 SBs, 1.1 fWAR
JJ Wetherholt: .250/.273/.281, 55 wRC+, 0 HR, 3 RBIs, 0 SB, 0.0 fWAR
Nolan McLean: 24 IP, 3.75 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 21.4% strikeout rate, 0.5 fWAR

The reason these numbers matter, other than harming Stewart's overall performance for the year, is that they were the final impressions left on voters. You'd like to assume that BBWAA members won't be prisoners of the moment when voting on season-long awards, but it's human nature to to give in to recency bias.

If Stewart's terrible month and Benge's great one influences this race, it would mean the Reds would lose out on an ever-important PPI pick. The Prospect Promotion Incentive requires eligible players to win the Rookie of the Year award in order to earn their team an additional draft pick, so being named a finalist won't be enough.

Hopefully, Stewart earns what is rightfully his. But if he falls short, it shouldn't be a mystery as to why.

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