Reds trading Gavin Lux suddenly makes this Orioles bat affordable

The departure of Gavin Lux (and his $5.525 million contract) provides the Reds with more payroll flexibility than they had in 2025. Even with the addition of Brock Burke’s $2.3 million salary, Cincinnati has an estimated $7 million in reserve compared to last year’s payroll according to FanGraphs. While the massive contracts being signed recently might imply that there isn’t quality available for such a low sum, a popular trade candidate fits the bill perfectly.

Baltimore Orioles first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, who would add some much-needed pop to the Reds’ lineup, just happens to be in line to make $6.8 million next season. It’s almost too perfect.

To sweeten the pot, Mountcastle has an extra year of control on a club option for 2027. With one deal, the Reds could address a major need and fulfill Nick Krall’s prediction that the payroll will be similar to that of 2025.

The Gavin Lux trade freed up the exact amount of money needed to take on Ryan Mountcastle’s salary

Few difference-makers on the free-agent market have been available for such a reasonable price. If the Reds were paying $7 million, they could have gotten Cedric Mullins or Willi Castro, for example, but they don’t have the power potential of Mountcastle.

If you want a guy who regularly produces an OPS+ of 110 or more (which Mountcastle did from 2020-24), you’re going to be paying an AAV above $10 million. Look at Mike Yasterzemski (113 career OPS+), who signed a two-year, $23 million deal with the Atlanta Braves.

It’s starting to feel like the offseason is moving into strategy mode, when every front office tries to find the best bang for their buck. Sure, the Reds could consider re-signing Austin Hays or taking a risk on a bounce-back candidate like Marcell Ozuna, but Mountcastle would be a solid budget move.

Despite his extra year of control, Mountcastle may not be too costly in terms of prospects, either. The Orioles need starting pitching. The Reds have too many arms. Burke, the newest member of the bullpen, is yet another pitcher in need of innings in an organization that has at least half a dozen pitching prospects waiting in Triple-A. The math here should be simple.