Reds star Elly De La Cruz's elite baserunning may be even better under Terry Francona

Elly De La Cruz’s electric speed undoubtedly has game-changing abilities. Anyone who has watched the Cincinnati Reds phenom break for second and throw the opponent in disarray can tell you that.

Until recently, measuring the value of his baserunning feats has been difficult. Statcast’s new metrics for baserunning value will help quantify exactly how essential De La Cruz’s aggressive baserunning style is (and where it may be costing the Reds). What Terry Francona will do with those numbers will take De La Cruz to the next level.

De La Cruz is by far the most aggressive base runner in the majors. His 50 bases gained above average, which includes both stolen bases and balks, far exceeds Shohei Ohtani’s second-place ranking of 35. This should come as no surprise as De La Cruz out-stole Ohtani 67 to 59. But the numbers also imply that De La Cruz could be even more impactful next year.

Reds' superstar Elly De La Cruz broke through as a preeminent base runner in 2024, but he could be even better in 2025

De La Cruz was eager to run, attempting to steal on 8.7% of pitches when he was on base with no other runners in front of him. This attempt rate ranks best in the majors. Unfortunately, he also ran into trouble, creating the third-most outs on the bases with his aggression.

This is where Francona can help. He’s an old-school manager who reads the game well. For example, his 2023 Guardians team went 24-for-28 on stolen base attempts in the first two weeks of the season, putting them on pace to be one of the top base-stealing teams of all time. Francona quipped to Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic (subscription required):

"“We don’t run because it’s in our skill set, we run because we think it helps us win.”"

Terry Francona on the 2023 Guardians

Ultimately, the Guardians came back down to earth as the league adjusted to the new rules. This balance between risk and predictability is exactly what Francona will have to manage with De La Cruz. The speedster led the majors after being caught stealing 16 times in 2024, and he had a similar success rate in 2023. 

Former manager David Bell was a steal-happy skipper, sending runners from first 14.1% of the time, which was third in the Majors. Francona and first-base coach Collin Cowgill will need to nail down the most successful moments to send De La Cruz. Francona’s stolen base attempt rate at second is 7.5%, roughly average for managers of his era, and third base attempt rate is a miniscule 1.7%, far below average. This conservatism will actually be in De La Cruz’s favor.

De La Cruz also had more than 400 fewer opportunities to steal than Ohtani. This is due to De La Cruz’s comparatively low average and on-base percentage. You can’t steal first base, after all. Luckily, Francona brought in Chris Valaika as hitting coach, who served under him in Cleveland. I believe the pair can bring a fundamentals-based mindset to the Reds and unlock De La Cruz’s true potential.

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