Reds standout Andrew Abbott could be the biggest All-Star omission of the century

From a statistical standpoint, Cincinnati Reds starter Andrew Abbott should be one of the most respected pitchers in the majors. After all, his 1.79 ERA ranks as second-best among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched, and his 3.3 bWAR is tied for eighth in the majors.

Abbott also ranks third in left on base rate and sixth in opponents’ batting average on balls in play. All of this indicates he’s one of the top arms in the game, but his name has been conspicuously left out of pitching rankings. If the trend extends to the All-Star Game, Abbott may become one of the biggest snubs of the 21st century.

For pitchers with a sub-2.00 ERA and 80 innings pitched in the first half, an All-Star nod is a virtual guarantee. This season, the Houston Astros’ Hunter Brown, who has a 1.74 ERA, and Abbott are vying to become the 27th and 28th players to accomplish this feat in the 21st century. Of that group, only three did not make the All-Star Game. In 2012, Ryan Dempster and Brandon Beachy missed the Midsummer Classic due to injury, and Johnny Cueto had missed all of April, marring his claim in 2011.

Reds starAndrew Abbott is a virtual lock for an All-Star nod… or is he?

It follows, then, that Abbott should be a sure thing to represent the Reds in Atlanta this July. However, his ERA doesn’t tell the whole story, and many pundits seem to be putting more emphasis on his other stats and undervalue Abbott. It may come down to how Abbott’s contemporaries and MLB as an organization view the lefty.

One knock against Abbott is his injury history. He missed the first two weeks of the season and lags behind other starters in innings and other counting statistics. How much the missed time will count against Abbott remains to be seen. 

The other challenge Abbott faces is the limited spots on the All-Star roster. Just 12 pitchers make the squad and at least three of those will be relievers. Paul Skenes, Zack Wheeler, and other NL standouts may stand in Abbott’s way, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required) predicts that the bevy of talent may block Abbott.

If the players and the MLB Commissioner’s Office overlook Abbott, it may be the biggest All-Star slight of the century.

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