Reds showing too much promise for playoff odds to stay this low

The Cincinnati Reds finally broke through and got to the playoff promised land in 2025, but quickly proved that they were a cut below the National League's top contenders once they got there. Heading into 2026, the goal was to take the next step and not just make the postseason, but have a deep run.

Heading into Opening Day, Terry Francona mused on how things would start relative to the club's goals, saying, "Does that translate into wins the first week? I hope. But there are no guarantees there. But I do know that regardless of how we start, we’ll keep playing. And that’s a good feeling because you never quite know. If [Garrett] Crochet decides to dial one up on us, those things happen. But I don’t think anybody’s going to run, we’ll be OK.”

Well, we can say now with certainty that, at least in the win-loss columns, the Reds have hit the ground running. Cincinnati is 17-9 through the first 26 games of the season, currently tied for first-place in the NL Central with the red-hot Chicago Cubs.

During the offseason, some weren't sold on the Reds as a true playoff team, given the way they backed in last season, but now, they have to be in the odds-makers' good graces, right? Not so much.

FanGraphs' playoff odds for Reds don't hold much water

The biggest issue with the Reds last season was their offense. The club ranked 14th a year ago in runs scored, and so far this season, they've fallen to 24th. The biggest impediment for Cincinnati to plate runs a year ago was the team's 21st-ranked slugging percentage, and so far in 2026, that's plummeted as well, now 25th with a .359 SLG mark.

Meanwhile, the Reds' rotation was supposed to be a strength. Currently, Cincinnati starters place 20th with a 4.35 ERA. All of a sudden, you can see why the optimism isn't quite there as Francona and company have just a 28.3% shot at postseason baseball.

But that's exactly why folks should be optimistic. The Reds haven't played their best baseball yet, but they've persevered. The weakest unit on the team, the bullpen, has turned out to be their biggest strength so far. They've lost two of the top starters to injury. Basically, they opened the season by taking a punch to the mouth and have not only survived, but flourished to a certain extent.

The starters will be better and will take yet another leap forward once Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene return. More importantly, there was hope that Eugenio Suarez (now on the IL) would lift the lineup, but it still felt like Cincinnati lacked a second star beside Elly De La Cruz. Now they have not just a star, but a budding superstar in Sal Stewart.

The real slap in the face is the odds of some of the teams with better odds than the Reds. For example, the New York Mets just snapped a 12-game losing streak, their worst skid since 2002. They just got Juan Soto back from the IL, but are set to be without Francisco Lindor for the foreseeable future. On top of that, all of their offseason acquisitions have fallen flat. The Mets were the team that the Reds beat out for the final wild card spot last year, so seeing them sit with 43.1% playoffs odds is puzzling.

Then there's an even greater insult with the Pittsburgh Pirates owning a 59.7% chance at making the postseason. The Reds' division rival finished 71-91 for a last-place finish in the NL Central a year ago. Their offense was historically anemic, and while they have made significant improvements, they still don't have a true star to build their lineup around. They're currently behind the Reds in the standings at 14-11. How is it that they're held in significantly higher regard than Cincinnati?

It's still very early, and these projections are forecasting a comedown for the Reds based on some of the underlying stats. To that extent, there's some logic. However, an even easier case can be made that those troubling indicators, like the poor SLG and starting rotation shortcomings, are small-sample noise, thus bolstering the Reds' playoff case, thanks to them winning games in spite of not playing their best baseball.

As the season unfolds, these odds will become more reliable, and we'll be able to better evaluate how likely the Reds are to achieve their goals. Until then, it's all guesswork.

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