Reds should revisit this risky extension that could finally pay off big

Reports before the 2025 season began revealed that the Cincinnati Reds approached Matt McLain about a contract extension during the offseason. The infielder rejected the Reds' offer and decided to bet on himself. That may have turned out to be a grave miscalculation on the part of McLain and his representation.

Though fans didn't receive any details of these contract discussions, one can assume that the Reds front office was attempting to ink McLain to a team-friendly deal following his injury-riddled 2024 campaign that resulted in zero games played.

Though it may seem incredibly unorthodox, there's nothing stopping the Reds from revisiting those contract talks again this offseason. While McLain's .220/.300/.343 slash line doesn't scream extension candidate by any means, if there was ever a moment to buy-low on a potential All-Star, this is it.

Reds should revisit this risky extension talks with Matt McLain

There's no denying that McLain endured a forgettable season. He was supposed to be a key feature of the Reds' 2025 lineup, but instead ended the season hitting in the bottom of the batting order while posting a 77 wRC+ and striking out nearly 30% of the time. If it weren't for McLain's Gold Glove-caliber defense at second base, he'd have been riding the pine throughout most of the 2025 season.

But McLain's 2025 campaign was not without some positives, and the defense was chief among them. The slick-fielding second baseman was worth 4 outs above average (OAA) and his sprint speed (29.2 ft/ sec) was still among the top 10% in the league. McLain was also 18-for-20 in stolen base attempts — a stat that can't be ignored when you're talking about a team that relies on speed and aggressive base running in order to score.

McLain is likely to qualify for Super Two status, and as such, will receive a pay raise. MLB Trade Rumors estimates that the Reds infielder will take home north of $2.5 million in 2026. He'll then be under team control for three more seasons, and reach free agency following the 2029 season. What if the Reds offered McLain a five-year deal with a club-option for 2030?

The Detroit Tigers took a flier on their top prospect and signed Colt Keith, who was 22 years old at the time, to a six-year, $28.6 million deal. Ketel Marte inked a five-year, $76 million extension with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2023, but his résumé was much lengthier than McLain's.

Though not a perfect comp, the six-year, $70 million deal Ryan McMahon signed with the Colorado Rockies in 2022 is more in line with McLain. McMahon, who was 27 at the time he signed that deal, was known more for his defense, but still owned a .755 OPS. McLain posted a .735 combined OPS between 2023 and 2025.

But McMahon was coming off a 2.5 fWAR season and didn't carry the injury concerns. He also showed tremendous improvements at the plate in 2021, which no doubt led the Rockies to sign him long-term. Again, it's not a perfect comp.

What the actual number might be is probably somewhere between Keith's $4.7 million AAV and McMahon's $11.6 million AAV. In fact, Ke'Bryan Hayes' $8.7 million AAV might be a happy medium — Hayes signed an eight-year, $70 million deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2022. Would McLain sign a five-year, $44 million extension with the Reds? He'd be foolish not to.

But do the Reds still believe in McLain as much as they did a year ago? That's the million dollar question. If they do, this offseason represents an opportunity to keep one of their core players around for the next half-decade. Given how McLain's 2025 campaign unfolded, it would be quite the gamble. But each and every one of these deals is a gamble, and it might be time for the Reds front office to take some risks.