Reds should monitor Tigers-Tarik Skubal dispute, but not for the reason you think

If you’re a Cincinnati Reds fan who sees “Tarik Skubal” and “dispute” in the same sentence, your brain probably does the fun little jump straight to: Can the Reds get him?

In the abstract, every team should want a back-to-back Cy Young monster. But that’s not the reason Cincinnati should be watching Detroit’s arbitration standoff. The real value for the Reds is what Skubal’s situation could do to the market around Cincinnati’s own pitching, specifically Brady Singer.

Right now, the Tigers and Skubal are miles apart: Skubal filed at $32 million, Detroit countered at $19 million — a record-sized arbitration gap. Arbitration hearings run late-January into mid-February, and while plenty of big cases settle, Detroit’s “file-and-trial” approach has people side-eyeing the relationship even more. 

Reds could flip Brady Singer to the Tigers if Tarik Skubal wins his arbitration case

But if the Tigers take an L (or even if they “win” but still feel the financial sting), they’ll have every incentive to protect their rotation depth without adding a huge salary. That’s where a one-year, relatively expensive-but-not-elite starter becomes appealing.

The Reds already avoided arbitration with Singer, agreeing to $12.75 million for 2026. And this is his final year before free agency. Singer is not cheap, but he’s also not in Skubal’s tier, and for a team trying to keep its staff functional while dealing with a potential arbitration gut punch, that’s the sweet spot. And Cincinnati has a very specific reason to care about that fit because the Reds don’t need Singer as much as they need what Singer can turn into.

This is where Reds fans need to be a little cold-blooded. If Detroit gets squeezed by the Skubal case, it’s not hard to imagine them scanning the league for a “stabilizer” starter — someone who can take the ball every fifth day while they figure out the bigger, messier stuff. That’s the lane Singer lives in.

So Cincinnati’s reason to monitor the Skubal dispute isn’t about how to get Skubal. It’s asking if Detroit’s situation creates a motivated buyer for Singer? Because if it does, the Reds can flip one season of Singer into something that fits their timeline better — a controllable bat, a leverage reliever, or even a prospect package that actually matters.

The Reds are not a team that’s going to brute-force a roster problem with money. Their edge has to come from timing and leverage. Detroit’s stress point is obvious right now, and it’s public.

Instead of the Reds picking a side, they just need to be ready to make the call the second the Tigers start shopping for pitching stability.