Reds saved a fortune by extending Chase Burns in light of Jacob Misiorowski’s dominance

Chase Burns' breakout and subsequent seven-year extension was the most important development for the Cincinnati Reds in 2026. Seeing him handle a full starter's workload (154⅓ innings) was promising enough, but the fact that he held up enough to record a 2.86 ERA and 3.24 FIP in that time was what really cemented him as ace material.

Among all those numbers, however, the most important one might be $105 million. That's the guaranteed total the Reds will pay Burns through 2033, making him one of the most well-compensated 23-year-olds in the country. Even then, that contract may soon look like a steal.

You see, the NL Central is loaded with aces, including last year's Cy Young award-winner (Paul Skenes) and the presumptive 2026 winner (Jacob Misiorowski). Those guys are going to start negotiating extensions in the near future (if they haven't already) and will likely raise the market for pitchers with multiple years of team control in the process.

In other words, the Reds were actually ahead of the curve for once.

Reds' gamble on Chase Burns should age gracefully in pitching-loaded NL Central

Burns has a ways to go before he belongs in the same tier as Skenes and The Miz, but that's the kind of company the Reds are expecting him to keep in the future. Regardless of how Hunter Greene bounces back from his elbow surgery in 2028 or what changes Andrew Abbott implements to try and revert to his All-Star form, Burns is going to be the leader of this rotation.

That's also the optimal way to view this extension: It's a bet on Burns' future, more than his present. Just look toward another NL Central team (the Chicago Cubs) for a perfect example of the upside here. Pete Crow-Armstrong signed a $115 deal prior to the season and then went on to run away with the NL MVP award. His contract now looks like an outright bargain, which is something that could soon be said about Burns' deal if he can live up to the hype.

Of course, there's always the possibility for this to blow up in Cincy's face. An injury (à la Greene) or sudden step back in his performance could spoil the vibes pretty quickly. But with Skenes and Misiorowski likely to command more than double what Burns received, it's hard to argue against the value of the deal itself.

All that's left now is for Burns to live up to his end of the bargain.

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