Reds are running out of chances to fix one ugly trend that will ruin their season

Even with the Cincinnati Reds slipping below .500, the NL Central still feels like it could be anyone’s game. Once Elly De La Cruz and Hunter Greene return, it’s easy to imagine some recent losses turning in Cincinnati’s favor. However, one concerning trend will certainly keep the Reds from the division crown. To be successful, Cincinnati needs to find a way to beat its divisional opponents.

Following Sunday‘s loss to the Cardinals, the Reds are 2-13 against NL Central teams, and they haven’t even faced the Milwaukee Brewers, the division leader, yet.

At the end of June, Cincinnati will embark upon 10 straight games against division foes, seven against Milwaukee and three against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Three games against the Chicago Cubs lead into the All-Star break. It’s possible, if not likely, that this stretch will be the key determinant in the Reds’ season.

Reds’ lack of success against NL Central opponents could doom 2026 season

These struggles are nothing new. The Reds have won the season series against the perennial cellar-dwellers, the Pirates, just four times over the past decade. Things are worse against the Brewers, who have won eight of the past 10 season series against Cincinnati. The same goes for the Cardinals. The Cubs are the only team that the Reds have found some regular margin of success against, splitting the past 10 season series.

Since division rivals face each other multiple times throughout the season, it seems unlikely that a team could get trounced within its own division and still walk away with the division title. It’s possible that a team could sneak into the final Wild Card spot. In fact, last year’s Reds went exactly .500 against NL Central teams and made the postseason. Unfortunately, they also had the second-worst record of any playoff team in history and got bounced by the eventual champions.

This year, the NL Central is noticeably better than it was in 2025, making the Reds’ job even harder. The whole division seems to be making a serious playoff push, and Cincinnati could easily become the punching bag on the way to those clubs punching their ticket. If the Reds want to avoid that fate, then they need to get serious about divisional play.

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