Reds' running game regression might doom their entire season

For all their faults, the 2024 version of the Cincinnati Reds could fly. The team finished the season with the third-most steals in the majors (207) and the fourth-best extra bases taken rate (47%). Unfortunately, they also were prone to mistakes; only the Washington Nationals were picked off more often, and no other team made more baserunning outs. New Reds manager Terry Francona has set out to fix those mistakes, but in doing so, he may have limited one of the Reds’ greatest assets.

This season, the Reds rank below league average in steals and are hovering around the midline in most other baserunning categories. Sure, Cincinnati has only run into 40 baserunning outs compared to 66 last season, but that hasn’t translated into runs.

In 2025, 32% of the Reds’ baserunners have come around to score, which is just up a mere percent from last season. In other words, Francona’s caution hasn’t benefited the Reds and could perhaps have made them less successful.

Terry Francona doesn’t want the Reds running into outs, but his approach means they aren’t running into runs either

Elly De La Cruz, the team’s most notable speed threat and no stranger to base running gaffes, is a perfect example of the benefits and drawbacks of Francona’s approach. Since his debut in 2023, De La Cruz has been among the most daring players on the basepaths and has gained more bases (113) as a result of his speed than any other player in that span.

This year, though, De La Cruz has taken Francona’s approach to heart, and his stats reflect the shift in philosophy. He has only created four outs on the basepaths, a third of his total last season, but he has gained just 23 bases and has a stolen base attempt rate of 4.1%, the lowest of his career. He has contributed a career-high nine baserunning runs this season, but much of that production comes when De La Cruz takes the extra base than when he bolts for second (or third… or home).

Similar phenomena can be seen up and down the Reds’ speedy lineup. Spencer Steer, who had a 20/20 season a year ago, has had roughly half as many advance attempts as he did in 2024. Matt McLain, whose sprint speed actually surpasses De La Cruz’s in 2025, has only made 49 attempts compared to 62 as a rookie.

Sure, some of this can be attributed to batting average and on-base percentage, categories in which the Reds hover around league average even as they have improved since 2024. At the end of the day, though, the Reds are a team in spitting distance of a Wild Card spot that has lost 19 one-run games, including four since the beginning of August. One has to wonder what might have been with a little more courage on the basepaths.

More Cincinnati Reds News and Rumors