Reds’ rumored Brady Singer plan looks even stranger after 2027 free agent ranking

As the Cincinnati Reds watched their playoff odds deflate during the early summer months, a trade deadline sell-off appeared inevitable. Among all their rental players — a list that included notable names like Eugenio Suárez, Nathaniel Lowe, and Tyler Stephenson — it seemed as though Brady Singer would garner the most attention from other teams.

Nick Krall, however, decided inaction was best the course of action, and opted to execute two smaller deals (involving Lowe and reliever Caleb Ferguson) while holding onto everyone else. That included Singer, who is rumored to be in line for a qualifying offer during the offseason.

The idea was always a little confusing, but it's now the lone pathway to get something of value for Singer before he walks in free agency. (If a player rejects the QO, the team receives a draft pick as compensation.) That begs an entirely different question, however. Is Singer even deserving of a qualifying offer?

Reds pitcher Brady Singer has played his way out of qualifying offer territory

Though he's set to surpass the 150-inning threshold for the fifth consecutive season, Singer's results have definitely lowered his perceived value. He owns a 5.03 ERA and 5.16 FIP through 28 starts, striking out hitters less frequently than ever. Other than reliability, he hasn't provided the Reds with much in the way of above-average production this season.

As such, Singer didn't get so much as a mention from Jim Bowden in his latest ranking (subscription required) of the top-15 free-agent pitchers. But Shota Imanaga and Freddy Peralta, both of whom have seen their value crater this summer, made the cut. You can argue whether or not Singer deserves a nod over some of the pitcher at the bottom of the list, but what's clear is that he's not entering a market that will be short on quality pitchers.

Knowing that, it's likely that Singer accept the QO. It's estimated that the offer will come in at about $23.1 million for one year, and would makes him the highest-paid pitcher on the roster for the second year in a row.

There's almost no way imaginable that Singer would turn down that kind of guaranteed payday, especially considering the draft compensation attached to his signing. (Teams must forfeit one of their own draft picks if they sign a player who received a QO.)

Under no circumstances should the Reds extend a qualifting offer to Singer. Now, if they want to discuss a free-agent deal, that's a different story entirely, and perhaps one that would work out well for both sides.

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