Reds' reluctance to chase stars traces back to one painful free agent miss

The specter of Jeimer Candelario hangs over the Cincinnati Reds' offseason in more ways than one. Part of the reason why the Reds' budget for 2026 feels so tight is that the Reds are paying Candelario $16 million in 2026 to not play for them.

If that wasn't bad enough, the club has to contend with the fact that they envisioned Candelario as a power-hitting hot corner man who could have been a foundational piece for their present and future. Instead, he turned into a pumpkin.

This isn't the first time the club has suffered this fate. Candelario wound up in Cincinnati partly because Mike Moustakas, an even bigger bust, flamed out. The $45 million the Reds gave Candelario and the $64 million they paid out to Moustakas might be drops in the bucket for other franchises, but for Cincinnati, they represent two of the biggest contracts in franchise history. It's no wonder they're shellshocked.

Jeimer Candelario's contract became an albatross and has scared the Reds off from chasing stars

With Kyle Schwarber as the notable exception, the Reds have not been in on any stars this offseason. That isn't due to a lack of holes, either. What the Reds really need is an outfield bat, but we've heard nothing about them sniffing around the top options like Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger.

While both would be expensive, if Cincinnati thought it could get creative to fit Schwarber into the budget, why could the club not do the same for one of them? The answer is the trauma they've suffered from Candelario and other high-profile signings, but in that, a lesson should be learned.

The mid-tier of free agents is typically the riskiest group on the market. The variations of potential outcomes are just too great, leading to some looking like steals, some being spot on value, and others being massive disappointments. Even riskier is paying a guy who only got into the league's middle class on the strength of one career year right before free agency, and that's exactly what happened with Candelario.

The Reds need to take their swings. Learning from past mistakes is a good thing, but getting paralyzed is taking the wrong message forward. Instead, they need to look for specific traits that fit their roster and needs, find players who have consistently exemplified those traits, and present them with market-rate offers.